I doubt that anything resembling genuine AGI is within reach of current AI tools
Meaning of “genuine” AGI
- Several comments question what “genuine artificial general intelligence” adds beyond “AGI.”
- Some interpret “genuine” as “intelligence that is actually non-biological,” others as “intelligence that works like human cognition,” and many see this as redundant or ill-posed.
- One view: human intelligence is just an existence proof; AGI need not share its mechanisms to count as “real.”
AGI, Superintelligence, and Other Categories
- Working definitions discussed:
- AGI ≈ human-level general intelligence (though “which human?” is unclear).
- ASI ≈ beyond any human.
- “Universal AI” ≈ can solve any solvable problem in principle.
- Some argue typical benchmarks (e.g., discovering new areas of mathematics) are closer to ASI than minimal AGI.
Autocomplete vs Intelligence and Novelty
- A recurring line: current systems are “glorified autocomplete” or “self‑parameterizing probabilistic models.”
- Critics say they mainly compress past data and lack true imagination, invention, and robust self‑evaluation.
- Others counter with examples: reinforcement learning designing novel molecules; LLMs coining new idioms; broad multi-task performance. Debate over whether these are brute-force search or genuine creativity remains unresolved.
Naming, Hype, and User Expectations
- Several comments see “AI” as a misleading, hype-driven label that suggests human-like understanding.
- Others argue consumers care about results, not mechanisms, analogizing “AI” to calling a washing machine a maid in 1825.
- There is concern that marketing terms like “reason,” “understand,” and “genius” distort public expectations and contribute to disappointment when systems fail.
Capabilities, Goalposts, and Tests
- Some argue goalposts for AGI have shifted: systems can now code, tutor, plan travel, play games, and do math at roughly high‑school level across many tasks.
- Others emphasize persistent “embarrassing failures” on basic reasoning, spelling, and commonsense puzzles.
- The Turing test is mentioned as both historically influential and now seen as an inadequate or misused benchmark.
Compute, Architectures, and Limits
- One thread posits a “guaranteed path” via simulating quantum mechanics or the brain, but notes this is blocked by computational complexity and energy constraints; others see this as effectively simulating natural, not artificial, intelligence.
- Practical concerns are raised about the sheer compute needed to match the continuous, multimodal processing of a human brain.
Risk and Preference
- Some participants say true AGI/ASI would be terrifying, enabling powerful surveillance or crime inference; they prefer today’s non‑sentient, fallible tools.