How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Target FIRE Numbers and Lifestyle Assumptions

  • Several commenters independently land around $5–6M for SF; some in lower-cost areas quote ~$4.5M.
  • Others argue the article’s $140k/year spend in SF represents a “broke” lifestyle and push the target closer to $10M.
  • A recurring theme: once numbers get to ~$5–6M+, “early” retirement becomes questionable, and people ask whether living in SF or paying for elite colleges is worth the extra working years.

Renting vs Owning, Stability, and Property Taxes

  • Renting is seen as unstable: risk of non-renewal, owner selling, and repeated stressful apartment searches (especially with pets).
  • SF rent control is emphasized: protections transfer with building ownership; buyouts rarely compensate for losing a rent-controlled unit.
  • Some say instability is overblown—you can tolerate a suboptimal place briefly—while others find the possibility of multiple moves highly stressful.
  • Homeownership is valued for predictable payments, but SF property taxes on a $2M home (~$30k/year) narrow the rent-vs-own gap.
  • California’s Prop 13 gets heavy criticism: long-term owners and corporations pay far below market-rate taxes, shifting burden to new buyers and renters; others defend it as protection for people on fixed incomes.
  • Debate over whether people should be “forced to move” if they can’t afford rising property taxes vs a quasi-right to stay in one’s primary residence.

Inflation, National Debt, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

  • Strong concern that US debt and rising interest costs could drive much higher future inflation, undermining traditional 4% (or 3%) rules.
  • One side: historical real stock returns (~7%) and tools like FireCalc / safe-withdrawal spreadsheets show 3–4% is still safe, with inflation already modeled.
  • Other side: past returns may not hold given demographics, geopolitics, and tail risks (wars, decline of US dominance); 4% is seen as over-optimistic.
  • Disagreement on whether inflation benefits lower-income workers (via wage growth and debt erosion) or primarily harms them (via destroyed cash savings and inflation-sensitive necessities).

Investment Strategies for FIRE

  • Some argue the classic “sell 3–4% of a total market portfolio” is inferior now that you can assemble portfolios of higher-yielding stocks/REITs (6–8% distributions) and avoid touching principal.
  • Others push back:
    • High yields can be cut; dividends are not fundamentally safer than selling shares.
    • Long-term, broad-market backtesting is more robust than chasing current yield windows.
    • Current high cash/bond yields (4–5%) are a relevant baseline.

Work, Purpose, and the Meaning of FIRE

  • One camp: humans need purpose; FIRE should be about gaining freedom to do more meaningful work, not to stop entirely.
  • Another camp: some retirees report zero regret, happily replacing work with travel and hobbies; purpose doesn’t have to be a job.
  • Several emphasize “financial independence” as buffer and flexibility (sabbaticals, job changes) rather than a promise to never work again; others note many FIRE’d people later return to work or new ventures.

Geo-Arbitrage, Climate, and Alternatives to SF

  • SF/Bay Area is praised for climate and natural beauty, making it emotionally hard to leave despite costs.
  • Some move to the Carolinas / Blue Ridge or consider coastal CA, southern Europe (e.g., Canary Islands, Cyprus, Malta), SE Asia, or South America as similar or better climates with lower costs and crime, and fewer SF-specific issues (homelessness, drugs, taxes).

Day-to-Day Cost Optimization

  • Multiple practical suggestions to reduce annual spend by ~$10–15k without major lifestyle sacrifice:
    • DIY yardwork and cleaning.
    • Shopping insurance aggressively and bundling.
    • Lower-cost cell plans.
    • Avoiding food delivery fees and frequent dining out; limiting alcohol/appetizers.
    • Dropping cable in favor of cheaper streaming/sports options.
  • Some note how expensive professional landscaping has become, reinforcing the value of DIY where feasible.

Taxes and Withdrawal Strategy Details

  • Concern raised that FIRE projections undercount taxes.
  • Response: with married filing jointly, substantial long-term capital gains can fall into the 0% bracket, and much withdrawal can come from basis plus qualified dividends; detailed strategies are acknowledged but not fully elaborated in the thread.

Tools and Methodology

  • Commenters recommend:
    • Historical backtesting via FireCalc.
    • A detailed safe-withdrawal spreadsheet series for scenario-specific rates.
  • Some criticize simplistic multiples and reliance on average stock returns, advocating TIPS or more conservative baselines and maintaining skills for backup income.