Fossil fuels could have been left in the dust 25 years ago

Nuclear power vs. renewables

• Some argue large-scale nuclear (especially standardized designs) could have displaced fossil fuels decades ago, citing France, Germany’s Konvoi reactors, and naval reactors as proof of feasibility.
• Others counter that nuclear has become more expensive over time (including in France), suffers from long build times, financing and decommissioning risks, and is now outcompeted by wind/solar plus storage on cost.
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are debated: proponents say factory-built reactors could unlock learning-curve savings; skeptics note that real SMR deployment is stuck at the prototype stage and existing examples are few.

France as a nuclear case study

• One side claims France’s fleet delivered very cheap power, high decarbonization and limited subsidies, with operating costs dominated by upfront capex and long lifetimes.
• Critics point to rising cost estimates for new French reactors, lower-than-claimed capacity factors, underfunded decommissioning, and official estimates of higher €/MWh than enthusiasts claim.
• Disagreement centers on which costs are counted (fuel, O&M, R&D, decommissioning, curtailment) and on assumed lifetimes (40–50 vs. 80+ years).

Solar learning curves and subsidies

• Many agree that earlier, larger subsidies for solar could have accelerated cost declines via Wright’s Law (cost falls with cumulative production).
• Others warn that heavy early subsidies can distort markets, lock in inferior tech, or backfire politically if early panels are unreliable or hard to recycle.
• There is debate over whether government support should have gone more to solar, nuclear, or other tech (e.g., fusion, carbon capture).

China, costs, and externalities

• Several comments note that today’s low solar prices depend heavily on Chinese scale, subsidies, and possibly poor labor and environmental standards.
• Some argue this creates a “human suffering discount” that makes renewables look cheaper than they would be under stricter regulations and wages elsewhere.

Intermittency, grids, and planning

• Critics of the article stress that solar’s intermittency, geographic variability, grid constraints, and historical battery limitations complicate the claim that fossil fuels “could have been left in the dust” 25 years ago.
• Others respond that these issues are real but manageable and increasingly outweighed by rapid cost declines in solar, wind, and storage.

Politics, markets, and systemic barriers

• Strong themes: fossil fuel lobbying, disinformation, subsidies, and political short-termism delayed transition; market prices don’t reflect climate externalities.
• Disagreement over “central planning” vs. markets: some want the market to decide after pricing in carbon; others say only strong policy can overcome incumbent power.
• Broader concerns include car-centric urban design, weak civic engagement, and structural corruption as recurring obstacles to timely adoption of better technologies.