Human history in the very long run (2021)

Work, Food, and Moral Desert

• A Zen story (“no work, no food”) sparks debate about whether it implies cruelty toward the frail or simply personal discipline.
• Some see “no work, no food” as brutal, excluding disabled or elderly people.
• Others argue:
  • Voluntarily refusing unearned food is different from denying food to those who can’t work.
  • Taking food without working can be theft or charity depending on consent.
• A hypothetical about a man hoarding surplus food raises questions about whether refusing to help a starving person is immoral.

What Modernity Gained and Lost

• Many argue material conditions are vastly better now: less starvation, war, plague, child mortality; better medicine, hygiene, and comfort.
• Others emphasize losses that standard metrics miss:
  • Stronger community ties, interdependence, large/extended families.
  • Free time, slower pace, less micromanaged work, more autonomy in small-scale farming/crafts.
  • High-quality, locally grown food; better-tasting fruits/meats; knowing where food comes from.
  • Dark skies, natural soundscapes, less pollution, less intrusive advertising.
  • Repairable tools and long-lived equipment.
• Disagreement over historical workloads: one side claims preindustrial work could be lighter or more flexible; the other insists subsistence farming and cottage industries were grueling.

Happiness, Mental Health, and Demography

• Some maintain that better material well-being likely means better average psychological well-being.
• Others counter with:
  • Rising rates of depression, anxiety, loneliness, and suicide.
  • Declining IQ scores (after decades of increase), testosterone, and job security.
  • Collapsing fertility rates viewed as evidence that many find life or society unattractive enough not to reproduce.
• There is concern that modern abundance may rest on ecologically unstable foundations, with climate and biosphere damage undermining long-term planning.

Marx, Capitalism, and Meaning

• Marx is credited by some for a sharp analysis of capitalism’s power imbalances and how extreme specialization can make work feel meaningless and alienated from outcomes.
• His proposed solutions (revolution, communism) are widely criticized as historically disastrous.
• Debate over:
  • Whether people “choose” capitalism via democracy or are constrained/ignorant.
  • Whether critics fairly engage Marx’s actual texts versus caricatures.

Energy, Growth, and the Future

• Several tie modern progress to fossil energy abundance.
• The 1970s oil shocks are cited as a turning point; some believe society never fully recovered its earlier growth trajectory.
• Renewables (especially solar) inspire cautious optimism:
  • Advocates see potential for resilient, decentralized supply and reduced waste through efficiency.
  • Skeptics argue a green grid will likely support significantly lower per-capita energy, forcing lifestyle and economic adjustments, possibly reducing “waste” more than living standards.

Power, Coordination, and Digital Society

• Modern “tech” models are compared to historical rent-extractors who “don’t grow the food” but take a cut.
• One line of argument blames exploitation on coordination and information asymmetries:
  • Slow knowledge diffusion, poor mass education, and controlled media let small elites dominate.
• Speculation about whether digital technology could, in the long run, improve coordination and reduce exploitation; current outcomes are seen as disappointing.

Class, Control, and Radical Proposals

• One commenter posits three classes:
  • Asset-owning “owners” who shape opinion.
  • Self-reliant “hermits.”
  • The vast majority as “pets” trained chiefly to consume and vote.
• Suggested institutional reforms include:
  • Strictly limited, demurrage-bearing money supply.
  • Strong direct democracy tied to prediction markets.
  • State-curated information ecosystems to counter propaganda.

Pain, Alcohol, and Everyday Experience

• Painkillers are noted as historically new; people once endured far more untreated pain.
• It is suggested that much heavier drinking in the past partly reflected coping with pain and hardship.