Human history in the very long run (2021)

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Debate over “progress” pits strong evidence of material gains since preindustrial times—less famine, disease, and child mortality—against claims that modernity has eroded community, autonomy, connection to nature, and even the will to have children. Commenters argue over whether capitalism’s specialization and power imbalances inevitably hollow out meaning, invoking Marx, historical peasant life, and today’s service‑platform economy as examples. Others focus on structural forces like cheap energy, technology, and social media, asking whether future shifts to green power and digital coordination can sustain living standards without deepening inequality, psychological distress, and social fragmentation.

Work, Food, and Moral Desert

  • A Zen story (“no work, no food”) sparks debate about whether it implies cruelty toward the frail or simply personal discipline.
  • Some see “no work, no food” as brutal, excluding disabled or elderly people.
  • Others argue:
    • Voluntarily refusing unearned food is different from denying food to those who can’t work.
    • Taking food without working can be theft or charity depending on consent.
  • A hypothetical about a man hoarding surplus food raises questions about whether refusing to help a starving person is immoral.

What Modernity Gained and Lost

  • Many argue material conditions are vastly better now: less starvation, war, plague, child mortality; better medicine, hygiene, and comfort.
  • Others emphasize losses that standard metrics miss:
    • Stronger community ties, interdependence, large/extended families.
    • Free time, slower pace, less micromanaged work, more autonomy in small-scale farming/crafts.
    • High-quality, locally grown food; better-tasting fruits/meats; knowing where food comes from.
    • Dark skies, natural soundscapes, less pollution, less intrusive advertising.
    • Repairable tools and long-lived equipment.
  • Disagreement over historical workloads: one side claims preindustrial work could be lighter or more flexible; the other insists subsistence farming and cottage industries were grueling.

Happiness, Mental Health, and Demography

  • Some maintain that better material well-being likely means better average psychological well-being.
  • Others counter with:
    • Rising rates of depression, anxiety, loneliness, and suicide.
    • Declining IQ scores (after decades of increase), testosterone, and job security.
    • Collapsing fertility rates viewed as evidence that many find life or society unattractive enough not to reproduce.
  • There is concern that modern abundance may rest on ecologically unstable foundations, with climate and biosphere damage undermining long-term planning.

Marx, Capitalism, and Meaning

  • Marx is credited by some for a sharp analysis of capitalism’s power imbalances and how extreme specialization can make work feel meaningless and alienated from outcomes.
  • His proposed solutions (revolution, communism) are widely criticized as historically disastrous.
  • Debate over:
    • Whether people “choose” capitalism via democracy or are constrained/ignorant.
    • Whether critics fairly engage Marx’s actual texts versus caricatures.

Energy, Growth, and the Future

  • Several tie modern progress to fossil energy abundance.
  • The 1970s oil shocks are cited as a turning point; some believe society never fully recovered its earlier growth trajectory.
  • Renewables (especially solar) inspire cautious optimism:
    • Advocates see potential for resilient, decentralized supply and reduced waste through efficiency.
    • Skeptics argue a green grid will likely support significantly lower per-capita energy, forcing lifestyle and economic adjustments, possibly reducing “waste” more than living standards.

Power, Coordination, and Digital Society

  • Modern “tech” models are compared to historical rent-extractors who “don’t grow the food” but take a cut.
  • One line of argument blames exploitation on coordination and information asymmetries:
    • Slow knowledge diffusion, poor mass education, and controlled media let small elites dominate.
  • Speculation about whether digital technology could, in the long run, improve coordination and reduce exploitation; current outcomes are seen as disappointing.

Class, Control, and Radical Proposals

  • One commenter posits three classes:
    • Asset-owning “owners” who shape opinion.
    • Self-reliant “hermits.”
    • The vast majority as “pets” trained chiefly to consume and vote.
  • Suggested institutional reforms include:
    • Strictly limited, demurrage-bearing money supply.
    • Strong direct democracy tied to prediction markets.
    • State-curated information ecosystems to counter propaganda.

Pain, Alcohol, and Everyday Experience

  • Painkillers are noted as historically new; people once endured far more untreated pain.
  • It is suggested that much heavier drinking in the past partly reflected coping with pain and hardship.