Google-Wiz deal fizzles out, company will pursue IPO

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Deal Breakdown and Who Walked Away

  • Some think Google backed out after due diligence (possibly over valuation or technical/financial findings), with Wiz spinning it as their choice.
  • Others think Wiz chose the IPO path to chase a higher long‑term valuation and avoid being tied to a single cloud (GCP).
  • Several note that, by the time diligence happens on a $23B deal, a lot of internal momentum exists; something nontrivial likely changed.

Valuation, Growth, and IPO vs. Acquisition

  • Wiz reportedly has $500M ARR, previously raised at a $12B valuation, and was offered ~$23B (45–50x ARR). Many call that “insane” or hard to justify versus typical cyber multiples.
  • Supporters argue: extreme growth (from zero to hundreds of millions ARR in ~4 years), strong product‑market fit, and large security budgets can support high multiples.
  • Skeptics compare this to other overhyped security or cloud firms and warn the TAM may not support such valuations. IPO success is seen as uncertain.

What Wiz Does and Market Context

  • Wiz is described as a cloud security / CNAPP platform: agentless scanning (e.g., cloning cloud volumes), asset graphing, vulnerability and malware detection, configuration and data‑sensitivity analysis.
  • It’s contrasted with endpoint‑focused tools like CrowdStrike; some note that Wiz doesn’t currently do endpoint security.
  • Several mention wide enterprise adoption (e.g., a large fraction of Fortune 100) but others had never heard of it, feeding skepticism.

Google’s Strategy and Alternatives

  • Some question why Google wouldn’t just build a competing platform; others say big companies often buy proven products rather than coordinate large internal builds.
  • Concerns that, if acquired, Wiz would be limited to GCP and possibly “Google‑killed” or overly integrated, harming multi‑cloud customers.

Regulation, Governance, and Ethics

  • Antitrust/FTC scrutiny of big‑tech deals is cited as a possible risk factor reducing the attractiveness of an acquisition.
  • A linked article about Wiz’s lead investor raises questions about CISO advisory programs and whether equity “points” resemble pay‑to‑play or kickbacks; opinions are split on whether this is merely aggressive but legal VC practice or ethically dubious.

Broader Themes

  • Debate over whether “it’s always about the money” vs. founders already being wealthy and optimizing for control or ambition.
  • General skepticism about tech overhiring, sky‑high valuations, and security vendors selling “checkbox” compliance rather than true safety.