Tesla Q2 2024 Update [pdf]

Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Autonomy

• Some owners report major recent improvements, saying FSD now handles city driving with minimal intervention and is viable for long trips (with mandated supervision checks).
• Others report dangerous or erratic behavior: curb strikes, late braking, poor lane handling, unsafe merges, and “last-second” corrections even in Tesla’s home territory.
• Skeptics argue individual impressions are irrelevant given the massive scale of road miles; even very high reliability can still be unsafe at national scale.
• Debate over whether “technology is there” vs. still far from safe, regulator-approved robotaxis. Tesla’s own filing only refers to “FSD (Supervised)” and emphasizes that it is not autonomous.

Financials, Margins, and Regulatory Credits

• Automotive sales and profit are down year-over-year; vehicle volume growth is expected to be lower in 2024.
• Operating margin has compressed into low single digits. Half or more of operating income this quarter is attributed to regulatory credits, prompting concerns about core auto profitability.
• Counterpoint: credits are a small share of revenue and require actually building EVs; they partially offset costs, and company-wide pricing/spend could adjust if credits declined.
• Some see this as evidence Tesla has long depended on subsidies and aggressive accounting; others say the business is not “doing poorly” given macro factors and one-time restructuring costs.

Product Roadmap: Semi, Cybertruck, Robotaxi, Optimus

• Tesla Semi: critics highlight tiny deliveries vs. 2017 promises and long delays; defenders say it’s still in limited test deployment, not prioritized, and not tied to 4680 cell production.
• Cybertruck seen by some as an ego-driven “halo” product prioritized over the more practical Semi; others say it’s a valuable testbed and already the best-selling EV pickup.
• Robotaxi and “AI company” narrative are widely viewed as speculative or “smoke and mirrors,” especially given repeated delays and the cautious language in official filings.
• Optimus humanoid robot and Dojo/AI future are mentioned as key to long-term valuation by some, but filings give them minimal, nonspecific treatment, raising doubts.

Market, Competition, and Demand

• EV growth is slowing in 2024, but non-Tesla EVs grew strongly in 2023; Tesla now faces many newer, competitive models, especially from Korean and other automakers.
• Some Tesla owners plan to switch brands for better comfort, UI, and to avoid association with the CEO.

Politics, Brand, and Governance

• Many argue the CEO’s rightward political shift and attacks on “woke” culture are alienating climate-conscious buyers and damaging demand.
• There is extensive debate about fiduciary duty: whether personal politics that threaten tax credits and brand value should justify replacing the CEO.
• Discussion also touches on reported large political donations and whether they are aimed at preserving subsidies, avoiding legal exposure, or simply personal ideology.

Energy Storage and Infrastructure

• Energy generation and storage now form a meaningful and fast-growing revenue segment (though still minority of total).
• Some see a pivot toward grid-scale batteries and infrastructure as inevitable; others note battery cells are largely sourced from partners and view storage as a low-margin, commoditized business with growing competition.