China's total wind and solar capacity outstrips coal

Scale and Growth of China’s Wind/Solar vs Coal

• Wind and solar nameplate capacity now exceeds coal, with projections that solar alone will surpass coal capacity by 2026.
• 2023 additions: ~293 GW wind+solar vs ~40 GW coal; only ~8 GW coal added in first half of 2024.
• Some argue this contradicts reports of record coal emissions; others clarify coal capacity is still growing but much more slowly, and recent increases are small relative to a huge existing base (~1200 GW).

Capacity vs Actual Generation; Capacity Factors

• Multiple comments stress that “capacity” is nameplate, not actual output.
• Typical capacity factors mentioned: solar ~20–25% (possibly higher in good desert sites), wind ~35%+, coal ~40–50%, gas combined cycle ~58%, nuclear ~60–90% depending on country.
• Coal and gas plants do not run near 100%; many operate as mid-merit or peakers, especially in China.
• As a result, several argue the capacity comparison is still meaningful, though imperfect.

Intermittency, Storage, and Transmission

• Repeated concern: solar and wind are intermittent; 24/7 reliability requires large-scale storage and transmission buildout.
• Others respond that this is a known engineering challenge, not a showstopper: solutions include batteries (LFP, sodium‑ion), hydrogen/e‑fuels, overbuilding capacity, demand shifting (e.g., water heating, industry), and HVDC/UHV lines.
• Debate over whether long-distance transmission or more local storage/overbuild will be more economical; China and others are already deploying HVDC lines and large batteries.

Nuclear vs Renewables

• Some argue new nuclear is “dead” economically compared to rapidly falling solar+storage costs.
• Others counter that China and Russia continue to build nuclear (including thorium R&D) and that nuclear is essential for baseload and winter heating.
• Counter‑argument: nuclear is inflexible and competes poorly when solar is abundant midday.

China’s Motives and Emissions Responsibility

• Several insist China is driven mainly by cheap, secure energy and smog reduction, not CO2 per se.
• Others point to explicit Chinese policy documents on low‑carbon development and note emissions may have recently plateaued or started to fall.
• Long subthread on absolute vs per‑capita and cumulative emissions, and on whether emissions should be attributed to producing vs consuming countries. No consensus.