China's total wind and solar capacity outstrips coal
China’s installed wind and solar capacity has now surpassed its coal power capacity, driven by record annual additions of photovoltaic and wind projects and rapid cost declines. Commenters note, however, that intermittent output and lower capacity factors mean coal still dominates actual electricity generation and emissions, even as new coal buildout slows and total CO₂ output may be nearing a peak. The exchange weighs how far renewables, grid-scale storage, transmission upgrades and complementary nuclear can realistically replace fossil fuels, and whether China’s primary motivation is climate policy, air quality, or energy security.
Scale and Growth of China’s Wind/Solar vs Coal
- Wind and solar nameplate capacity now exceeds coal, with projections that solar alone will surpass coal capacity by 2026.
- 2023 additions: ~293 GW wind+solar vs ~40 GW coal; only ~8 GW coal added in first half of 2024.
- Some argue this contradicts reports of record coal emissions; others clarify coal capacity is still growing but much more slowly, and recent increases are small relative to a huge existing base (~1200 GW).
Capacity vs Actual Generation; Capacity Factors
- Multiple comments stress that “capacity” is nameplate, not actual output.
- Typical capacity factors mentioned: solar ~20–25% (possibly higher in good desert sites), wind ~35%+, coal ~40–50%, gas combined cycle ~58%, nuclear ~60–90% depending on country.
- Coal and gas plants do not run near 100%; many operate as mid-merit or peakers, especially in China.
- As a result, several argue the capacity comparison is still meaningful, though imperfect.
Intermittency, Storage, and Transmission
- Repeated concern: solar and wind are intermittent; 24/7 reliability requires large-scale storage and transmission buildout.
- Others respond that this is a known engineering challenge, not a showstopper: solutions include batteries (LFP, sodium‑ion), hydrogen/e‑fuels, overbuilding capacity, demand shifting (e.g., water heating, industry), and HVDC/UHV lines.
- Debate over whether long-distance transmission or more local storage/overbuild will be more economical; China and others are already deploying HVDC lines and large batteries.
Nuclear vs Renewables
- Some argue new nuclear is “dead” economically compared to rapidly falling solar+storage costs.
- Others counter that China and Russia continue to build nuclear (including thorium R&D) and that nuclear is essential for baseload and winter heating.
- Counter‑argument: nuclear is inflexible and competes poorly when solar is abundant midday.
China’s Motives and Emissions Responsibility
- Several insist China is driven mainly by cheap, secure energy and smog reduction, not CO2 per se.
- Others point to explicit Chinese policy documents on low‑carbon development and note emissions may have recently plateaued or started to fall.
- Long subthread on absolute vs per‑capita and cumulative emissions, and on whether emissions should be attributed to producing vs consuming countries. No consensus.