Can solar costs keep shrinking?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Energy use, GDP, and the Henry Adams curve

  • Several commenters reject the article’s implied “more energy → more GDP” causality and the idea that falling off the Henry Adams curve is a “catastrophe.”
  • Data cited from World Bank: since ~1970 the US has produced much more GDP per unit of energy, with GDP/energy improving roughly 10x by 2010–2014.
  • Others argue energy still sets a hard floor: there are no rich, energy‑poor countries, and many future activities (desalination, carbon removal, synthetic fuels) would be unlocked by very cheap abundant energy.

Efficiency, decoupling, and Jevons paradox

  • Many examples of efficiency gains: LEDs vs incandescent, EVs vs ICE, heat pumps vs gas furnaces, lighter cans, better industrial processes.
  • Some emphasize decoupling: US GDP kept rising while energy use flattened.
  • Others invoke Jevons paradox: efficiency often expands total energy use by making new applications economical; low‑GDP countries also tend to have low efficiency.

Electrification and total energy demand

  • Debate on whether a fully electrified economy needs more or less total primary energy:
    • One side: EVs and heat pumps mean much less energy than current fossil use (EVs ~3–8x more efficient, heat pumps 2–4x).
    • Another side expects 4–6x more electricity demand as we electrify industry and discover new uses for cheap power, though total energy spend could still fall.

Solar costs, tariffs, and trade

  • Strong agreement that PV module prices have crashed (panels now cheaper than window glass; wholesale in some markets cited at ~€0.07–0.12/W).
  • Multiple comments say in the US, tariffs and trade actions have kept panel prices several‑fold above global levels and slowed deployment.
  • Disagreement on whether Chinese prices reflect “dumping” or just scale and industrial policy.

Utility‑scale vs rooftop; soft costs and labor

  • Consensus that modules are now a minority of system cost; labor, permitting, racking, inverters, marketing, and financing dominate, especially for residential.
  • Several argue utility‑scale ground‑mount should win on cost; rooftops are more about politics, resilience, and personal economics.
  • Others highlight very high US residential quotes versus much cheaper EU or DIY installs, implying large soft‑cost “swindle” in some markets.

Grid integration, pricing, and net metering

  • Discussion of the “duck curve” and saturation of mid‑day solar; net metering at retail is increasingly seen as unsustainable at high penetration.
  • Some regulators find rooftop solar a net grid benefit at low penetration; others highlight cost shifts onto non‑solar customers.
  • Flat connection fees and income‑based charges are controversial; some see them as fair payment for grid services, others as utility rent‑seeking.

Storage and intermittency

  • Rapid growth of grid batteries in California and Texas is cited as evidence that storage is scaling and solving ramping problems.
  • Skeptics argue today’s batteries cover only hours, not multi‑day or seasonal “dunkelflaute,” and that multi‑TWh storage remains far from economical.
  • Alternatives discussed: pumped hydro, thermal storage (sand/molten salt), hydrogen/e‑fuels, demand shifting (EVs, industrial loads, heating).

Nuclear vs solar

  • Some remain strongly pro‑nuclear (for land use, firm power, and long‑term abundance), but others point to repeated cost overruns and nuclear’s much higher LCOE vs solar+storage in current reports.
  • There is debate over whether high nuclear costs are intrinsic (steam‑cycle complexity, safety) or mostly regulatory and political.
  • Several note that in practice new build globally is dominated by PV and wind; nuclear additions are modest and heavily state‑backed.

Policy, regulation, and deployment speed

  • Examples from Germany: high household prices, heavy taxes, large export of cheap surplus solar, political fights over coal, gas, and nuclear phaseout.
  • US issues include interconnection queues, grid upgrade cost allocation, NIMBYism around transmission and wind, and utility influence on rooftop policy.
  • Some see China’s planned, state‑led build‑out of PV and manufacturing as proof that coordinated industrial policy can massively accelerate the transition.

DIY and off‑grid

  • Multiple commenters describe DIY or semi‑DIY systems (homes, RVs) where falling panel and battery prices make off‑grid or heavily grid‑light living feasible.
  • Even so, practical issues (water, winter sun, maintenance, medical access) mean such setups are portrayed as niche lifestyles, not mass solutions.