The price of shutting down coal power, and what would be gained

Coal’s Decline and Regional Differences

• US coal use is down ~60% from 2008; trend suggests near-zero in the 2030s as plants convert to gas and become uneconomic vs renewables.
• Globally, several sources in the thread say coal use has likely peaked or will very soon, though recent data also show record production and consumption, especially in China and India.
• China and India are major outliers: China’s total coal use is huge but per-plant utilization is dropping; India’s coal capacity share briefly fell below 50% before bouncing back.
• Coal employment has structurally fallen for a century due to mechanization and is unlikely to rebound.

China’s Energy Strategy

• China is simultaneously expanding coal, wind, solar, nuclear, and UHV transmission.
• New coal capacity is often framed as modern replacement and future peaker capacity; plants now run ~50% of the time vs ~70% historically.
• Large-scale renewables growth and UHV lines help shift power across regions and time zones, reducing coal load factors.
• Motives discussed include economic stimulus, local incentives, pollution control, and energy security (including possible conflict scenarios).

Renewables, Storage, and Economics

• Multiple commenters argue coal is being killed primarily by economics, not policy: wind/solar are now cheaper than coal almost everywhere.
• Solar costs cited around low tens of $/MWh; solar + batteries is claimed to undercut new gas peakers and some nuclear in many markets.
• Grid batteries (LFP and emerging sodium-ion) are said to be rapidly dropping in cost, with 10–20 year lifetimes and improving recycling; others question resource limits and real-world lifespans.
• Pumped hydro and other storage (gravity, hydrogen, thermal) are discussed as complementary, with cost depending heavily on cycle frequency.

Natural Gas vs Coal

• US coal decline is strongly linked to cheap shale gas.
• Some view gas as a “less bad” bridge; others note methane leaks may erase its climate advantage over coal, making the environmental benefit unclear.

Nuclear Power Debate

• Pro-nuclear voices emphasize energy density, dispatchability, and value as low-carbon baseload, arguing nuclear plus renewables reduces storage needs.
• Critics highlight high capital cost, long build times, regulatory burden, waste issues, and recent megaproject overruns; they argue fast, cheap renewables plus storage and limited gas peakers are a better near-term path.
• Examples from France, Japan, South Korea, China, and US projects show mixed records on timelines and cost.

Coal in Industry (Steel, Cement, Biofuels)

• Coal remains critical for primary steelmaking (metallurgical coal) and is harder to replace than coal power.
• Alternatives mentioned: hydrogen-based direct reduction, electrocatalytic routes, charcoal/bio-coal; all seen as promising but early and hard to scale to billions of tonnes.
• Cement remains another large, stubborn emissions source.

Climate Costs, Policy, and Justice

• Several argue the “price of not shutting coal” (climate damage, health impacts) dwarfs any compensation to plant owners, and that much existing coal is already uneconomic.
• Others question how well climate models capture uncertainty for trillion-dollar decisions and argue for prioritizing immediate human welfare (clean water, disease control) where possible co-benefits exist.
• The article’s figure (~$34/ton CO₂ avoided by buying out plants) is questioned as simplistic, likely ignoring operating economics and replacement costs.
• Debates arise over who bears responsibility: consumers vs producers, role of fossil subsidies, and historical information suppression.

Developing Regions and Future Coal Demand

• Some predict rising coal use in Africa and other developing regions due to cost and reliability; others counter that solar + storage is already cheaper, more modular, and avoids fuel import dependence.
• Financing and geopolitics matter: loans and foreign-backed coal for mining/industry can lock countries into coal despite poor long-term economics; corruption and elite incentives are noted.
• India is described as “addicted” to coal with powerful incumbent interests, complicating transition.

Governance, Data, and Transitions

• Debate over whether autocracies are more effective at pollution/climate action: China’s rapid air-quality improvements vs the Soviet Union’s poor environmental record are contrasted.
• Democracies are portrayed as messy but ultimately capable of strong action when pollution becomes acute (e.g., US EPA in the 1970s, London smog response).
• Concerns raised about data quality in autocracies and the difficulty of acting on less-visible, long-term climate risks vs obvious local pollution.