Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

Hacker News Discussion ↗

AI & LLMs

  • Many expect 2025 to be dominated by AI: better open‑source models, AI agents that reliably use computers/desktops, and LLMs integrated into most apps and workflows.
  • Others predict an AI investment bubble: too many near‑identical startups, high burn, weak business cases, and eventual consolidation or failures (possibly including OpenAI being absorbed by a larger company).
  • Strong interest in RL fine‑tuning and tool use for agents, especially for desktop automation; hope this triggers a “second ChatGPT moment.”
  • Some see LLMs becoming mundane “talking fidget spinners” with disappointing ROI, while others say they’re already very useful day‑to‑day.
  • Several expect AI‑powered search (ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.) to take a meaningful chunk of Google’s market share; Google is expected to keep rebranding and churning AI products.

Economy, Markets & Debt

  • Predictions span persistent inflation, renewed Fed rate hikes, and a US recession vs. continued stock market growth and high corporate profits.
  • Widespread concern about US sovereign debt, rollover risk, and “fiscal dominance,” with some shifting to gold, land, BTC, and collectibles; others argue these fears are overstated or misunderstood.
  • Many foresee tech and AI‑related layoffs continuing, VC as an asset class weakening, and tougher conditions for entry‑level software engineers.

Geopolitics & Conflict

  • Frequent focus on Trump’s second term: expectations of deregulation, tariffs, trade wars, weakening of regulators, and stress on alliances (NATO, Ukraine).
  • Ukraine: scenarios range from a frozen conflict and territorial loss to eventual peace under pressure; US aid reductions seen as likely.
  • Multiple references to a “hybrid WW3,” rising global instability, and potential China–US–EU tariff chains; some expect Europe to face fiscal and political crises and expanding far‑right influence.
  • Isolated, extreme predictions include nuclear use and large‑scale H5N1 pandemic.

Social Media, Kids & Mental Health

  • Strong concern about youth gambling (sports, crypto, CS:GO skins) and social media harms; some countries are already restricting advertising and platforms.
  • Anticipated tighter controls on minors’ phone and social media use, via both law and coordinated parental norms; worries about enforcement requiring intrusive digital ID.
  • Debate over unintended harms of restrictions, especially for LGBT or abused youth who rely on online communities.
  • Broader anxiety about dopamine addiction (social media, gambling), interest in pharmacological “dopamine management,” and parallels to GLP‑1 drugs.

Crypto & Digital Assets

  • Polarized crypto outlook: some see 2025 as another big Bitcoin leg up (e.g., toward $200k) driven by ETFs and politics; others expect a sharp correction or long bubble unwind.
  • Expectations of a regulatory “year of the grift”: more rug pulls, scams, influencer‑driven pump‑and‑dumps, but also more institutional and government adoption in some regions.

Technology & Devices

  • Smart home expected to “heat up”: Thread/mesh networking, 6 GHz, UWB locks, Apple home hubs, FaceID door access, in‑home AI servers, and open‑source speech interfaces.
  • Speculation about an “AI phone” paradigm where the primary UI is a constant AI assistant (voice+video), with deep personalization but severe privacy trade‑offs.
  • Predictions of broader AR/VR adoption (but still niche/expensive), more drones (including potential weaponization and regulation), and early RISC‑V consumer laptops.

Climate, Health & Bio

  • Consensus that climate destabilization will intensify: hotter records, more extreme weather, pressure on already unstable politics, but still limited effective action.
  • Health anxieties include antibiotic resistance, bird flu (H5N1) zoonosis, and broader infectious disease resurgence amid anti‑vax influence on agencies.
  • GLP‑1 drugs rumored to reduce various addictions; some anticipate future “focus/dopamine” drugs sparking a productivity boom but also more robotic, less social behavior.

Work, Jobs & Society

  • Expectation that generic PM roles and narrow “pure dev” or “pure design” roles decline; pressure to be multi‑skilled (code, design, sell, content, community).
  • Many foresee rising value of skilled trades (plumbers, electricians) amid decades of college‑only emphasis and persistent demand for in‑person work.
  • Some predict marketing of “AI‑free,” human‑only services and brands as a premium niche.

Meta‑observations about predictions

  • Several commenters reviewed older HN prediction threads and found most past predictions wrong, highly optimistic, or wish‑fulfilling.
  • Mood in this thread is markedly more pessimistic and bleak than in prior years, with more focus on instability, inequality, and systemic decline.