Waymo to test its autonomous driving technology in over 10 new cities

Geographic expansion & winter testing

• Commenters note Waymo’s focus on varied climates: Truckee/Tahoe, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, upstate New York (including very snowy cities), and now Tokyo, San Diego, Las Vegas.
• Discussion centers on snow/ice complexity: rapidly changing conditions, freezing rain, poor lane markings, and ambiguous pathfinding are seen as harder than “just snow.”
• Some suggest additional sites like Jackson Hole or Calgary as good, affluent, constrained testbeds, but differences in climate (persistent ice vs intermittent snow) matter.

Economics and unit profitability

• Heavy debate around whether Waymo has positive “unit economics.”
• One side argues individual trips could already be profitable if you ignore historic R&D and city mapping, focusing only on operating costs per ride.
• Others with robotics/AV experience counter that mapping, high‑bandwidth data collection, remote operations, expensive connectivity, sensors, and specialized maintenance are all ongoing operating costs, making current per‑ride economics “very bad.”
• There is disagreement over how much of Alphabet’s “Other Bets” loss is really Waymo.

Use cases: taxis, vans, and private ownership

• Many expect Waymo to focus on robotaxis in dense, profitable areas rather than universal self‑driving or rural coverage.
• Some are interested in AV minibuses or wheelchair‑capable vans, but others point out human driver costs are spread over many riders and wheelchair handling adds complexity and risk.
• A subthread explores private ownership of self‑driving cars versus fleet models: some see no appeal beyond a taxi service, others imagine highly personalized “pods” or “coaches” with fleet‑owned drive units (“horses”).

Safety, driving behavior, and user experience

• Mixed reports on pedestrian/pet detection: some claim “many close calls”; others say Waymo consistently stops with ample space.
• Riders generally praise calm, predictable, “defensive” driving and cleanliness versus human ride‑hail, but complain about:
  • Over‑cautious behavior (e.g., unprotected left turns causing long delays).
  • Slower trips vs aggressive human drivers, though perceived as safer and more relaxing.

Rollout strategy, competition, and politics

• Many believe Waymo will quietly expand geofenced “beta” areas until it dominates profitable taxi markets, similar to Uber’s early city‑by‑city rollout.
• Some think current pricing is kept near or above Uber/Lyft to avoid political blowback from undercutting human drivers; long‑term, lower labor costs and higher utilization are expected to tilt economics in Waymo’s favor.
• Others argue AV fleets remain capital‑intensive (Waymo pays for cars; taxis often don’t) and that profitability is far off.
• Debate on competition: Waymo seen as a leader in deployed robotaxis, but Amazon’s Zoox, Tesla, Chinese AV firms, and potential Uber partnerships with multiple autonomy providers are all viewed as credible threats.
• A few see large tech firms (including Alphabet) using deep pockets, acquisitions, and regulatory relationships to entrench monopolies/monopsonies in AV and AI.

Cities, transit, and public reaction

• Tokyo is seen as an interesting choice: dense, low‑crime, but not necessarily “high trust.”
• Some predict Waymo will significantly reduce Uber/Lyft demand in a few years; others expect a long period where AVs cover only select geofenced zones.
• NYC prompts sharp reactions: some want congestion pricing specifically for AVs; others look forward to competition with subways on comfort and convenience, while defenders argue subways already dominate on volume and cost.
• Concerns are raised about AVs causing gridlock when their software fails in complex urban situations, vs concerns about crime and discomfort on public transit.

Unclear details

• The thread notes that the article mentions “10+ cities” but does not list them all or clearly identify the primary source; commenters infer some cities from Waymo’s marketing site but agree the exact list remains unspecified.