Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Interpretation of “Microsoft Is Dead”

  • Many read “dead” as loss of cultural and strategic dominance, not financial collapse.
  • In the 1990s–early 2000s, Microsoft could freeze whole markets just by announcing entry; that “old Microsoft” is widely seen as gone.
  • Others argue this rhetoric is misleading: “dead” suggests permanence and ignores Microsoft’s later resurgence under a different business model.

Microsoft’s Trajectory and Current Role

  • Broad agreement that Microsoft was in a malaise around 2005–2008 and looked IBM‑like.
  • Nadella’s pivot to Azure, cloud, OSS friendliness, GitHub, and Office 365 is seen as the key revival.
  • Today Microsoft is described as a “gas giant” or rent‑extractor: less feared by startups, but hugely powerful in enterprise, cloud, gaming IP, and developer tooling.
  • Some stress that critics underestimate ongoing dominance: Windows desktop share is still very large, Office 365 is deeply entrenched, and Azure is a top cloud.

Google, Apple, and Platform Power

  • Several note the essay’s claim that Google was the new “big man in town” and ask if Google itself is now enshittified or waning.
  • Long thread on why Google Docs/Sheets never displaced Office:
    • One side: they had a 10‑year cloud head start and youth adoption; failure was lack of execution and strategy.
    • Other side: pricing power, Office lock‑in, and user training made the bet too risky.
  • Apple’s “victory” is debated: Macs became default in startups and modern tech companies, but Windows still dominates globally and in gaming.

Startups vs Incumbents and Capital

  • One camp claims capital from giants and asset managers is “weaponized” to destroy alternatives, making real competition impossible without subsidies or regulation.
  • Others counter that tech remains unusually open: small teams can reach $1M+ ARR with little capital, and big‑company buyouts actually incentivize more startups.
  • Disagreement over whether large incumbents would actively “spend you out of business” or mostly ignore you unless you get big.

Tools, Ecosystems, and Developer Experience

  • Discussion of Windows’ improved developer story: WSL2, PowerShell, stable Win32 ABI, good gaming and hardware support.
  • Counterpoints: unstable cloud APIs, frustrating enterprise Windows environments, and lingering preference for Macs/Linux in many dev niches.

Hero Worship, Privilege, and Prediction

  • Multiple comments question treating famous founders/VCs as oracles; stress that even well‑argued essays can age poorly.
  • Long side‑thread on luck, family background, and how wealth can distort perspective, including critiques of the bubble reflected in using YC founders’ laptop choices as a macro indicator.