How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

Perceived lack of strategic fit in the merger

• Many see a Honda–Nissan tie-up as structurally bad for Honda: Nissan is viewed as an “anchor” whose problems would drag Honda down.
• Commenters argue there were few real synergies: overlapping product segments, similar ICE lineups, competing EV strategies, and no obvious technology gap Honda needed Nissan to fill.
• Several note that the deal looked politically driven: the Japanese government was widely perceived as pressuring Honda to “save” Nissan, while Nissan’s own leadership resisted being treated as a bailout case.
• Nissan’s political entanglements (e.g., factories in Kyushu and the prestige of Nissan Shatai) reportedly made necessary plant closures or rationalization almost impossible.

Nissan’s predicament

• Multiple comments describe Nissan as financially “dying,” with steep sales drops over the past decade and missed opportunities in EVs after the early Leaf lead.
• Nissan is criticized for exiting once-strong segments (off‑road SUVs, compact trucks) and retreating into bland, low‑margin crossovers.
• Some expect Japanese state support or a Foxconn‑style rescue rather than outright failure, but overall sentiment is that Nissan is in deep denial about the need for radical change.

Honda’s trajectory

• Honda is seen as having lost its historic “fun/innovative” edge, becoming bland and mid‑market; its EV/hybrid efforts are viewed as late and timid, with notable reliance on GM for the Prologue.
• Counterpoints: the Odyssey and some SUVs are praised as high‑quality, “premium-feel” family vehicles; Honda’s dominant motorcycle business and strong position in Asia are cited as buffers against collapse.

Japanese automakers and the EV transition

• Broad consensus that Japanese firms, including Toyota and Honda, badly misread or delayed the BEV transition, overbetting on hybrids and hydrogen. Nissan’s stagnated Leaf program is a prime example.
• Some argue the global EV market is still growing double digits and cannibalizing ICE, so late movers are structurally disadvantaged.
• Others note Japan’s domestic EV demand is tiny and policy has favored hydrogen, making EV investment less attractive at home even as it risks ceding global ground to Chinese brands.

Carlos Ghosn and governance

• Several see Nissan’s current weakness as a long tail of Ghosn-era decisions: initial cost-cutting and financial “turnaround” at the expense of long‑term product and R&D.
• There is sharp debate over Ghosn himself:
  • One view: a brilliant early reformer who pushed EVs (Leaf/Zoé) and could have made Nissan a BYD‑like leader if he’d stayed focused.
  • Opposing view: a deeply corrupt executive who siphoned huge undisclosed compensation and assets; critics reject narratives that his prosecution was purely political.
  • A third line of discussion questions the fairness of Japan’s criminal justice system and whether selective enforcement and political protectionism were at play.

Chinese competition and future structure

• Several participants foresee Chinese EV makers undercutting Japanese commodity cars worldwide, with Japanese brands at risk of “Nokia/Motorola after iPhone” unless they pivot hard.
• Others are skeptical, pointing to heavy Chinese subsidies, profitability problems at many Chinese EV firms, and long‑term support/parts risk for buyers.
• Overall, the collapsed merger is framed as a symptom: a proud but weakened Nissan, a cautious and drifting Honda, and a Japanese auto sector struggling to align with a fast‑moving EV and China‑centered world.