My washing machine refreshed my thinking on software estimation

Appliance Moving Norms and Value

• Heated debate over whether it’s “absurd” to move washers/dryers when changing homes.
• Some see them as personal, high-value items (preferred types, known not to damage clothes, older and more reliable than modern “smart” units) and always take them.
• Others treat them like fridges/dishwashers that usually stay with the house, citing effort, contracts that include appliances, and regional customs (varies widely within the US and across countries).
• Hygiene and safety arguments for taking your own: unknown prior care, detergent/softener buildup, uncleaned dryer vents as fire risk.

Tradespeople, Cost, and Specialist Knowledge

• Many relate the “drain hole” surprise to why plumbers charge “$300 for a 5-minute job”: you’re paying for knowing about hidden knockouts, having all tools on the truck, and absorbing overhead, travel, and downtime.
• Some push back that small solo operators can be reasonably priced; others note trades are often overbooked, hard to schedule, and quality varies wildly.
• Multiple stories of watching a pro do in 20 minutes what would take a DIYer hours, reinforcing the value of repetition and experience.
• At the same time, people complain about sloppy or corner‑cutting contractors and choose DIY for better quality control.

Unknown Unknowns and Estimation in Software

• Many see the washing machine saga as a near-perfect metaphor for software estimates: what looks like a 10‑minute job hides cascades of “unknown unknowns” (blocked spigot, missing hole, wrong drill, hose length, etc.).
• Some think the real lesson is better upfront analysis (“measure twice, cut once”): walk through all steps, inspect everything, and make one big “hardware store” run.
• Others argue that for genuinely new work, you simply can’t know all the questions at the start; accurate estimates require having done nearly the same thing recently.
• Discussion of waterfall-like stages (analysis → requirements → design → implementation) as a way to expose unknowns early, vs. agile habits that underplay planning.
• Several note that most software tasks are not true repeats; 90% of the work is fumbling in new territory, so estimates are inherently loose and should be treated probabilistically.

Tools, DIY Culture, and Quality

• Thread branches into tool choices (adjustable spanners, hole saws, consumer vs. prosumer drills), with jokes about “poor tools, great determination.”
• Strong advocacy for buying decent tools for frequently used tasks and cheap or rented ones for rare jobs; recognition that this leads to well-stocked home workshops over time.
• Some report using tool libraries or neighbor networks to share specialized gear.

Washing Machine “Time Remaining” as a Parallel

• Several expected the article to be about inaccurate time displays on washers/dryers.
• Descriptions of how machines adjust time based on load balance, dirt in water, or humidity, causing last-minute jumps—explicitly likened to shifting software progress bars and slipping release dates.