An investigation into egg prices

Supply, Culling Numbers, and Production Data

• Debate over how many hens were culled: figures range from ~30M per month during peak outbreaks to ~115M over three years, with some confusion about timeframes.
• Several point out that even large-sounding losses are a small percentage of a ~350M+ laying flock, and geographically concentrated.
• USDA/NASS data shared in the thread show:
  • Overall egg production since 2021 is down only ~3–5%, but at the low end of the past decade despite population growth.
  • Imports (e.g., 240M eggs from Turkey) and allowing meat-bird eggs into the table-egg supply are numerically modest relative to total US production.

How the Egg Supply Chain Actually Works

• Commercial layers and breeder flocks are separate; you don’t just “add a rooster” to a layer barn.
• Hatcheries are highly automated and capital-intensive; individual farms that lose flocks typically buy replacement pullets rather than breed their own.
• Grocery eggs are generally unfertilized; candling removes most fertilized or embryonic eggs, though rare failures occur.

Prices, Monopolies, and Manufactured Scarcity

• Many see current prices as classic oligopoly behavior: consolidated producers restricting capacity, using shocks (avian flu, “welfare” programs) as cover to keep prices high.
• Some local/discount chains report steady supply and moderate prices, while national chains show partial shelves and much higher prices—used as evidence of “manufactured” shortages and coordinated pricing.
• Others emphasize that actual production is down and some stores do run out, so higher prices and spot shortages are at least partly real.
• There’s disagreement over whether eggs are still “cheap protein” so consumers tolerate hikes, versus whether that minimization distracts from serious antitrust concerns.

Animal Welfare and “Fake” Justifications

• One line of argument: industry animal-welfare standards (larger cage space) functioned primarily to cut flock size and prop up prices under a moral pretext.
• Counterargument: documentation shows large buyers and consumers demanding welfare standards, and a scientific committee designing the program; welfare motives and profit motives can be intertwined rather than purely fake.

Policy, Politics, and Market Power

• Long subthreads tie egg prices to broader trends:
  • Concentration across sectors, lack of spare capacity, and resulting breakdown of textbook supply–demand dynamics.
  • Frustration with both parties’ limited appetite for vigorous antitrust enforcement and with retreat from earlier “trust-busting” traditions.
  • Arguments over whether inflation is mainly opportunistic price-gouging vs macro policy, and whether measures like price controls or anti–price-gouging laws are viable.
• Some warn that weakening regulatory agencies will further reduce the ability to police collusion and cartels.

Consumer Responses and Alternatives

• Suggestions include: buying from local farms or backyard keepers, substituting other proteins (tofu, lentils, canned fish, cottage cheese), or boycotting dominant producers.
• Others are skeptical these can scale or overcome zoning/HOA restrictions and consumer inertia, but agree that without some demand response, oligopolies face few consequences.