Has the decline of knowledge work begun?

Rethinking Degrees and Credentials

• Many argue the bachelor’s degree has morphed from elite “finishing school” to over‑priced, vague vocational signal for the PMC, with poor alignment to concrete skills and huge debt burdens.
• Others counter that, controlling for confounds, degrees still correlate with higher productivity and non-monetary benefits (e.g., problem‑solving, broad knowledge), especially when tuition is low or subsidized.
• Strong criticism of US student debt: loss of bankruptcy protection is framed as a “trap”; some favor discharging bad loans over blanket forgiveness, plus attacking root causes (tuition inflation, federal loan guarantees, rankings obsession, sports/housing spending, defunding publics).

Standardization vs Universal/Bespoke Education

• One camp says basic literacy/numeracy should be heavily commodified and standardized so everyone gets it cheaply, worldwide.
• Another warns commodification produces “one size fits most,” systematically leaving many behind and undermining pedagogy.
• Some see degrees as poor knowledge measures and want modular, teacher‑run courses and standardized testing/certifications instead of compulsory long programs—possibly aided by cheap AI tutors.

What Education Is For

• Tension between “produce useful workers” vs “develop informed citizens / humans capable of appreciating beauty.”
• Some fear an anti‑human, purely vocational view; others insist someone must still pay for non-vocational education, so costs vs benefits can’t be ignored.
• Liberal arts are defended for critical thinking and civic capacity but attacked as expensive, politically captured, and weak on economic/government literacy.
• Repeated suggestion to bolster high‑school curricula (reading, numeracy, economics, civics, “calling bullshit”) rather than pushing everyone into 4‑year degrees.

Alternatives: Trades, Apprenticeships, Shorter Paths

• Strong support for trades and apprenticeships as cheaper, clearer pathways than marginal bachelor’s degrees; criticism that firms killed training and now expect “job‑ready” grads at public expense.
• Community colleges, associate degrees, and European-style 3‑year BAs are proposed as partial fixes; skepticism that employers currently treat these as equal to traditional BAs.

AI, Automation, and Knowledge Work

• Some think AI will augment, not eliminate, knowledge workers, triggering Jevons-like effects: cheaper knowledge work → more demand. Others foresee executives over-believing AI, firing people prematurely, and “country‑scale enshitification.”
• Lots of concern about juniors relying on AI instead of learning fundamentals, and companies using AI to mass‑generate unread reports or low‑quality code.

Layoffs, Overhiring, and Management

• Many see current white‑collar cuts as ZIRP hangover + higher interest rates + overhiring cleanup, with “AI” mainly serving as a PR cover story.
• Broader pessimism about Western institutions: managerial bloat, metrics‑driven decision‑making, antitrust inaction, short‑termism, and loss of technical and manufacturing know‑how.