Airline demand between Canada and United States collapses, down 70%+

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Primary Explanations for the Collapse

  • Most commenters attribute the drop overwhelmingly to politics, not economics: Trump’s return, GOP backing, and repeated “51st state” / annexation rhetoric plus new tariffs.
  • Several note Canadian airlines aren’t seeing similar drops on other routes; some are even adding Europe capacity, suggesting this is US‑specific.
  • A minority initially suggest “weak economies” or poor Canadian job market, but are challenged that this can’t explain a sudden 70%+ fall concentrated on US routes.

Annexation Threats & Canadian Sentiment

  • Canadians describe the annexation talk as an existential threat and profound betrayal by a supposed closest ally.
  • Many compare the vibe to Russia–Ukraine or Georgia: a larger neighbour questioning sovereignty, talking about “artificial borders,” and using economic pressure.
  • A recurring complaint is that many Americans either:
    • Dismiss it as a joke / mere trade dispute, or
    • Openly approve it and frame Canada as a resource colony.
  • This gap in perception is itself seen as a major rupture in trust.

Border, ICE, and Personal Safety

  • Numerous stories of arbitrary or punitive treatment by CBP/ICE (including citizens, green‑card holders, and a Canadian with a valid visa held for weeks) make people reluctant to risk travel “just for vacation.”
  • Fears include detention without due process, invasive device searches, being caught in “collateral” arrests, and harsher treatment for racialized or immigrant travelers.
  • Some emphasize that Canadian preclearance facilities are on Canadian soil and legally more constrained, but others counter that the US is visibly ignoring legal limits elsewhere, so written safeguards feel unreliable.

Economic & Practical Factors

  • The weak CAD vs USD is widely acknowledged as a headwind, especially for shopping and snowbird travel, but most argue it’s a background factor rather than the trigger.
  • Historical behavior (driving to US border airports for cheaper flights) is reportedly reversing; some notice US‑origin fares now relatively expensive or less attractive.

Tourism, Conferences, and Boycotts

  • Many Canadians explicitly frame their non‑travel as a boycott: “we just don’t want to give the US our business anymore.”
  • Reports of:
    • Long‑standing Florida snowbirds looking at Costa Rica, Panama, Cuba, etc.
    • Canadians cancelling US conferences and retreats; some organizers now see zero Canadian attendance.
    • Early signs of international tech/standards conferences avoiding US venues.
  • A few Americans abroad say they’re cancelling nonessential trips home because they don’t want to face US border officials either.

US Politics, Soft Power, and Long‑Term Damage

  • Extended meta‑discussion that US “soft power” has moved from slow leakage to “hemorrhage.”
  • Some argue this is part of a broader authoritarian turn: weaponizing tariffs, degrading rule of law, and normalizing threats against allies.
  • Others note that even if an eventual political reversal happens, the damage to trust and to the image of US institutions will take many years to repair.

Data Quality and Uncertainties

  • Some skepticism about the 70% figure: it’s from a forecasting/analytics firm based on forward bookings, not official totals.
  • Air Canada is cited as disputing the magnitude, though commenters note airlines have already cut significant US–Canada capacity.
  • Several call for clearer data: directionality (Canada→US vs US→Canada), shifts to non‑air modes, and substitution toward other destinations.