7.7 magnitude earthquake hits Southeast Asia, affecting Myanmar and Thailand

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Scope and Immediate Impact

  • 7.7 quake with epicenter in central Myanmar; far from the ocean so users note low tsunami risk.
  • Strong shaking and structural damage reported in Myanmar (Mandalay, Naypyidaw, Sagaing) and distant cities like Bangkok, Hanoi, and Saigon.
  • Multiple first‑hand accounts describe intense fear, nausea, and difficulty standing or walking indoors.

On-the-ground Damage in Myanmar and Thailand

  • Reports from Myanmar mention collapsed homes, bridges (including the historic Sagaing Bridge), airport structures, Mandalay Palace walls, and junta government buildings.
  • Casualties in Mandalay repeatedly described as rising, with people trapped under rubble; commenters expect eventual death toll to be “thousands,” but emphasize current figures are uncertain.
  • In Bangkok, a high‑rise under construction fully collapsed, and rooftop pools spilled water dramatically down façades; dozens of workers were trapped and several deaths confirmed in media reports cited.

Alerts, Telecom, and Government Response

  • Several people did not receive Android earthquake alerts; discussion references Google’s previous false alarm in Brazil and uncertainty about where alerts are enabled.
  • In Thailand, a cell broadcast system exists but was not activated; authorities instead sent delayed SMS, and some citizens relied on unrelated apps or even online gambling sites for quicker guidance.
  • Comparisons made to Turkey’s quake where base stations were reportedly disabled; one comment calls that case “wilfully evil.”

Engineering and Building Behavior

  • Debate over whether buildings are especially vulnerable while under construction.
  • Some argue a reinforced concrete frame should be near full strength once cured; collapse suggests design or construction error.
  • Others note partial structures can be weaker (uncured concrete, unbraced framing, missing dampers and bracing), and that additional seismic components may not yet be installed.

Seismology, Shaking Pattern, and Distance Effects

  • USGS shakemaps and PAGER outputs shared; users note Mandalay lies near the strongest shaking and along the Sagaing Fault.
  • One technical thread explains faults as line sources, not points; larger quakes rupture long segments.
  • Discussion of why Bangkok, ~600–1000 km away, saw such strong effects: suggestions include soft basin soils amplifying long‑period waves, which especially affect tall buildings.
  • Clarification that magnitude (energy) is stable, while intensity maps are based on peak ground acceleration and may not correlate perfectly with damage; peak ground velocity and frequency content can matter more.

Information Flow and Politics

  • Several note that coverage focuses on Thailand because Myanmar is under military rule, in civil war, and largely closed to media and foreign journalists.
  • Some argue this means official casualty counts from Myanmar may remain unreliable or incomplete.
  • A long subthread debates Singapore’s historical economic and political role in enabling Myanmar’s junta, with conflicting views on the degree of state complicity.

Economic Loss and Recovery

  • USGS PAGER ranges of 6–70% of Myanmar’s GDP in estimated losses prompt confusion and debate.
  • Some think it’s a typo (60–70%); others argue 60–70% would be near-apocalyptic, likely wrong, and economically almost irrecoverable.
  • Others counter that very poor countries have had large percentage swings before, and that projections are based on coarse models (seismic intensity × population × GDP per area), so huge uncertainty is expected.
  • One participant warns that the biggest long‑term harm could come from social breakdown and governmental incapacity after the disaster, citing other historical quakes.

Emotional Responses and Agency

  • Many express shock at videos (collapsing tower, rooftop pool “waterfall”), and sadness given Myanmar’s existing suffering from civil war.
  • Some users grapple with the disconnect between watching disaster footage online and being unable to help; another pushes back that donations and even travel are possible, and that “trained helplessness” should be resisted.

Speculation and Miscellaneous

  • A side thread wonders about a link between a contemporaneous geomagnetic solar storm and the earthquake; one commenter asserts coronal hole streams are “associated with earthquakes,” but no consensus or evidence is presented in the discussion, and the connection remains unclear.
  • One comment notes potential disruption to hard‑drive supply chains, implying regional manufacturing exposure but without details.