The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

State of U.S. Manufacturing and Machine Tools

• Several commenters note the U.S. is still the #2 manufacturer globally and produces more (in value) than ever, mainly in high‑end areas (aerospace, medical devices, chemicals, semiconductors), with far fewer workers due to automation.
• Machine‑tool capacity is different: many classic U.S. builders died or shrank; newer firms like Haas exist but China and Europe dominate advanced/precise tools.
• Tooling and components (screws, castings, motors, specialty glass, even radio modules) are now often only economical to source from abroad, especially China, creating deep supply‑chain dependence.

Skills, Labor, and Education

• Strong sense that hands‑on machining expertise has aged out; young skilled machinists are rare as policy and culture pushed “everyone to college.”
• Some argue modern factories are highly automated; the romantic 1950s image of hundreds of line workers will not return. Future manufacturing jobs are fewer, more technical.
• Disagreement over unions: some see union decline as core to wage erosion and skill loss; others insist higher labor costs reduce job counts and accelerate offshoring and automation.

Tariffs, Trump, and Reindustrialization

• One line of argument: broad tariffs are meant as a shock to force reshoring, rebuild industrial capacity (especially defense‑relevant supply chains), and rebalance a services‑heavy economy.
• Others counter this is economically incoherent: tariffs hit allies as well as rivals, raise input costs for U.S. producers, and create massive uncertainty that deters long‑term investment.
• Multiple commenters stress sequencing: historically, countries first subsidize domestic industry and secure inputs, then protect; doing blanket tariffs first is seen as backwards and self‑damaging.

Globalization, Trade Theory, and Mercantilism

• Classic comparative advantage vs. mercantilist thinking is heavily debated:
  • Pro‑trade side: specialization and global supply chains massively increased global wealth; the U.S. should stay focused on high‑value services and design.
  • Skeptical side: “free trade” as implemented exported mid‑skill jobs, hollowed industrial regions, and concentrated gains; some level of protection and industrial policy is seen as necessary.
• There is concern that fully de‑globalizing will shrink product variety, especially high‑end niche tools, and overall living standards.

National Security and Allies

• Many argue certain capacities (machine tools, chips, drones, shipbuilding, basic medical supplies) must exist domestically or within trusted allies; COVID mask shortages and dependence on China/Taiwan are cited as warnings.
• Disagreement on tactics: some see current tariffs as alienating allies and pushing them toward China; others frame them as forcing Europe and others to rearm and reindustrialize.

Social and Political Underpinnings

• Broad recognition that industrial decline and poor adjustment policy (weak retraining, weak safety net) fueled resentment that powers tariff politics.
• Some see current moves as necessary correction of “neoliberal” offshoring; others liken them to reckless campaigns (e.g., Mao‑era economic experiments) that risk long‑term damage for short‑term political gain.