Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Retail Effects: Prices vs. Selection

  • Commenters expect a mix of higher prices and reduced variety: some goods will get marked up heavily, others will quietly disappear.
  • Very high tariffs (e.g. 125–145%) are seen as de facto bans on many low-margin imports (cheap clothing, toys, accessories, packaging).
  • Retailers are likely to consolidate SKUs: fewer colors/sizes/models, more gaps in “long tail” items, especially for China-heavy categories (toys, pet products, cheap electronics, computer accessories).
  • Debate over strategy: some argue it’s irrational to let shelves go empty instead of raising prices; others note demand will collapse for non-essentials at much higher prices, making stockouts or intentional under-ordering rational.

Empty Shelves, Panic, and JIT Supply Chains

  • Several participants predict “really ugly” visible shortages once existing inventory runs out, with toys, low-end electronics, strollers, and car seats repeatedly mentioned.
  • Others argue food and essentials will mostly remain available, but with less choice and higher prices—core disruptions likely in secondary items (packaging, components, fertilizer, spare parts).
  • Strong focus on panic behavior: small reductions plus viral “bare shelves” posts can trigger hoarding, as seen with toilet paper; even modest supply hits can cascade via just‑in‑time inventories.
  • Some think talk of “empty shelves” is alarmist and masks the deeper risk: a recession driven by bankruptcies, layoffs, and supply-chain cost shocks.

Port Volumes and Data Disputes

  • Claims that Seattle is “empty” are challenged with MarineTraffic data and local observations: traffic is clearly down, but not zero; one industry source reports ~12% drop so far and forecasts ~25–30% monthly declines.
  • Port of LA’s own dashboard shows a ~35% year‑over‑year volume drop for an upcoming week, though later weeks are forecast to partially rebound.
  • Multiple tools are shared for tracking port and vessel activity; some warn early weekly stats understate the accumulating shock due to transit lags.

Jobs, Small Business, and Manufacturing Dreams

  • Widespread concern for dockworkers, truckers, warehouse staff, intermodal drayage firms, and small import‑dependent businesses; some predict a “mass die‑off” of small logistics firms if tariffs persist 6–9 months.
  • Small CPG and electronics firms report being unable to price or even place orders; some foresee tens of thousands of bankruptcies if conditions last beyond ~60 days.
  • A minority hopes this will revive local manufacturing and crafts, but others counter that:
    • Domestic producers also depend on Chinese inputs and machines.
    • Lead times and capital needs are multi‑year, while tariffs are chaotic and reversible.
    • Uncertainty makes banks and investors extremely reluctant to fund reshoring.

De Minimis, Direct Imports, and Makers

  • Removal of the de minimis exemption (<$800) is seen as a huge, under‑discussed hit to everyday online imports (AliExpress, Temu, Shein) and to DIY/maker electronics, which relied on cheap direct shipments.
  • Some note a partial upside: this channel had been heavily used for drug precursors, but others argue sweeping over‑enforcement creates disproportionate collateral damage.

China, Strategy, and Governance

  • Deep skepticism that the tariff shock is part of a coherent strategy; many describe the administration as panicked, ad‑hoc, and highly sensitive to donor/CEO pressure.
  • Disagreement over who “holds the cards”: one camp argues China can absorb a partial loss of the US market and redirect exports; others stress China’s dependence on that demand and risk of internal strain.
  • Moral and strategic arguments for decoupling from Chinese labor and IP practices get some support, but even many who agree in principle criticize these tariffs as blunt, destabilizing, and poorly targeted.