The great displacement is already well underway?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

AI vs. Macroeconomics and Overhiring

  • Many argue the main driver of the brutal job market is the end of ZIRP, changed tax treatment of R&D, and post‑COVID overhiring, not AI per se.
  • AI is widely seen as a tactical productivity booster; it lets teams “do more with less” but doesn’t yet change what gets built.
  • Others insist 2022+ was an inflection point: leadership now routinely asks “can AI do this instead of hiring?” and delays or shrinks hiring on that basis.
  • Several anecdotes: teams becoming 3–10x more productive with AI, followed almost immediately by layoffs rather than bigger ambitions.

Age, Career Trajectory, and Industry Structure

  • Strong disagreement on whether being ~40+ is disqualifying: some report ageism so strong they effectively gave up; others see many 40–60+ engineers in non‑web, government, telco, and games.
  • A recurring theme: 20+ years of experience without clear leadership, deep specialization, or visible contributions (OSS, tools, research) is now a liability in competitive markets.
  • Concerns that the industry is shifting from “plenty of room for mediocre seniors” to “up or out.”

Remote‑Only, Location, and Care Duties

  • Many commenters think the author’s insistence on fully‑remote, combined with rural location and caretaker responsibilities, is a major self‑imposed constraint.
  • Others push back: for some (health, disability, caregiving) remote isn’t a preference but a necessity, and the market is increasingly hostile to that.
  • Several note that “dream” remote postings get 1000+ applicants, making networking and non‑standard paths more important.

Skills, PHP, and Global Labor Arbitrage

  • Author is perceived by some as “PHP‑only” and thus easily replaced and offshorable; others clarify they’ve worked full‑stack TypeScript in recent years.
  • Debate over PHP: modern PHP is considered “fine,” but highly commoditized, with strong downward wage pressure via cheaper regions.
  • Generalist vs specialist: some generalists report AI augments them and they thrive; others say generalists are filtered out by hyper‑specific reqs and stacks.

Resume, Branding, and Filters

  • Multiple detailed critiques of the author’s resume and portfolio: chaotic layout, “vibecoding” as a listed skill, emphasis on AI buzzwords, thin technical detail, and decade‑old brand screenshots.
  • The single‑letter legal surname is seen as likely breaking HR systems and subconsciously flagged as “weird”; several suggest an informal two‑word name for job search.
  • Advice: tailor resumes per role, de‑emphasize AI hype, give concrete tech stacks and metrics, and separate doomer‑toned Substack from professional materials.

Real Estate, Risk, and Personal Choices

  • Owning three modest upstate NY properties splits opinion: some say it shows prior privilege and over‑leverage; others note combined mortgages are below big‑city rent and were a path to basic homeownership.
  • Several argue the portfolio is now an anchor: unfinished renovations, Airbnb seasonality, and lack of liquidity amplify job‑loss risk.
  • Thread emphasizes there’s no risk‑free investment; selling may be as “ruinous” as holding, but clinging to sunk costs can be worse.

Fragile Systems, Scams, and Social Media Decay

  • Commenters describe increasingly fragile economic and social systems where small shocks (rates up, hiring pause) cascade into widespread precarity.
  • Many jobseekers report rampant scams, ghost jobs, automated rejections, and “dead internet” vibes—AI spam and botty engagement poisoning trust in every medium.
  • Some see the author’s “doomer” angle as partly sincere, partly incentivized by the attention economy.

Advice and Coping Strategies

  • Concrete suggestions:
    • Target local non‑glamour sectors (defense, medical devices, pharma, universities, municipal IT) even at lower pay.
    • Heavily use personal networks and referrals; cold applications alone are performing terribly.
    • Consider hybrid or limited on‑site roles, even with commutes, as a bridge.
    • Tighten resume/portfolio, avoid edgy branding, and be explicit about modern stacks (TS, cloud, C/C++/Java where relevant).
  • Underneath the critique, many express empathy, share similar multi‑hundred‑application stories, and worry they could be next.