How to cheat at settlers by loading the dice (2017)

Loaded dice as a concept (games & casinos)

• Some like the idea of openly using unknown-biased dice to add meta-strategy; others suggest just claiming the dice are loaded while using fair ones.
• Discussion of translucent casino dice: mainly to prevent player/employee cheating, not to reassure players.
• Several argue casinos already have a built-in edge and generally prefer fair games; extra rigging risks detection and regulatory trouble.
• Others note organized crime or rogue employees historically have tried to rig games, but biased games can be exploitable by mathematically savvy players.

Detecting and understanding dice bias

• Simple cheat test: drop dice repeatedly in (salted) water to see if the same face consistently floats up.
• Cheap dice are already imperfect: pip drilling changes mass distribution, usually favoring heavier “1” sides vs “6”.
• Some note manufacturers may partially compensate via mold design; degree of built-in bias is unclear.
• One criticism: the article should have run a control experiment with stock dice before and after soaking.

Impact on Catan and strategy

• Some doubt the practical importance: soaking seemed to produce only a small effect, possibly less than turn order.
• Others brainstorm exploiting subtle shifts (e.g., favoring 5/9 over 6/8), but question whether it meaningfully changes play.
• Players highlight that Catan already has significant luck and snowballing; social targeting of the leader is the main counterbalance.

Dice decks and alternative randomness

• Dice-card decks (ensuring exact bell-curve frequencies) exist for Catan and via house-made playing-card hacks.
• Many find them “too sterile”: outcomes feel predictable, allow card-counting, and reduce the sense of wild luck.
• Some mix many different dice and swap sets each game to avoid learning a fixed bias pattern.

Statistics & p-values

• Commenters note the article’s “p-values can’t prove cheating” framing is tongue-in-cheek.
• Several stress that p-values only address statistical significance, not full inference, and “absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence.”
• One points out that low sample size in a normal-length game does not imply opponents couldn’t pause and test the dice separately.