Alberta separatism push roils Canada

Economic base and post-oil future

• Debate over how long high-cost Alberta oil sands remain viable as global demand shifts to EVs and renewables.
• Some argue Alberta is the marginal producer that will be squeezed out by cheaper oil (e.g., Saudi), others counter that oil sands costs have fallen and outcompete US shale.
• Solar potential is contested: southern Alberta has decent irradiance, but winter output is low, overbuild/batteries are expensive, and export power prices are weak compared to oil’s forex value.
• Pipelines and market access are central: many note Alberta’s dependence on US refineries and limited ability to reach tidewater, regardless of separation.

Fiscal transfers and “net contributor” status

• Widespread claim that Alberta “pays for” other provinces via federal taxes and equalization; others point out this mostly reflects higher incomes and that equalization is a small share of the federal budget.
• Counter-argument: Alberta’s own public finances are structurally weak—chronic deficits, no sales tax, boom–bust budgeting, and underinvestment in services despite oil royalties.

Feasibility of independence

• Landlocked geography seen as a major constraint; Alberta would still depend on Canada/US for export routes.
• Legal complications: virtually all of Alberta is treaty land with First Nations and the Crown; several comments argue those treaties cannot simply be transferred to a new state without Indigenous consent, making clean separation legally murky.
• Defense scenarios range from “Canada would never go to war” to speculation about US leverage or eventual annexation; others note many small states exist with limited military capability.

Public support, media, and organization

• Multiple Albertans say outright independence is a minority view, used more as pressure than a real plan, though some polls show 30–40% sympathy.
• Perception that media attention and door‑to‑door organizing (including new parties) are amplifying a smaller base of resentment.
• Quebec is repeatedly cited as a model of using separatism as leverage rather than an end in itself.

Historical grievances and political culture

• Long-running western anger tied to the National Energy Program, perceived central Canadian indifference, and cultural overlap with US interior right-wing populism.
• Others argue this “western alienation” has been stoked for decades by local elites and resource interests to deflect blame for Alberta’s own policy failures.

Foreign and corporate influence

• Several comments suspect coordinated information operations: references to US right-wing media segments, oil-industry funding, and more speculative mentions of US intelligence or Russian-style “divide and conquer.”
• Others caution that foreign propaganda only works because genuine economic and cultural grievances already exist.

Environment and climate policy

• Sharp split between those seeing federal constraints on fossil expansion as necessary climate action, and those who frame them as attacks on livelihoods.
• Some note Alberta’s aggressive moves against renewables (permitting moratoria) and weak enforcement on industry cleanup as evidence of capture by oil interests.