Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

Market bets and Tesla valuation

• Multiple commenters report large Tesla put positions but also note they’ve lost money shorting in the past; Tesla is described as a “cult/meme stock” whose price often ignores fundamentals.
• Some expect robotaxi reality to puncture the valuation; others argue the stock has repeatedly defied bad news and that timing a collapse is extremely risky.

Musk’s motives, ego, and politics

• Debate over whether Musk is primarily mission-driven, profit-driven, or power/ego-driven.
• Some see him as willing to burn money for ego (e.g., Twitter), others point to his fight for a huge compensation package as evidence he cares deeply about extracting wealth.
• Several think his political behavior has badly damaged the Tesla brand; others doubt politics will matter if robotaxis work and are cheap.

Vision-only FSD vs lidar and geofencing

• Widespread skepticism that vision-only can safely handle all conditions (weather, complex city streets) vs lidar-heavy, geofenced approaches like Waymo.
• Concern that Musk has personally framed adopting lidar as defeat, and that retrofitting past “FSD-ready” cars could trigger massive liability.
• A minority argue vision-only will eventually work with more data, and that keeping hardware cheap is key for mass deployment.

Safety, regulation, and liability

• Many expect serious crashes; some predict a disaster worse than past Uber/Cruise incidents given low reported miles-per-critical-disengagement.
• Strong calls for criminal accountability if FSD kills people, countered by arguments that car makers already cause fatalities within regulated frameworks.
• Discussion of limited existing standards covering FSD and claims that Tesla sidesteps or flouts some reporting/terminology norms.
• Robotaxis without drivers raise questions: who is liable for pedestrian deaths, and will political allies shield Tesla?

Real-world user experiences with FSD

• Experiences diverge sharply:
  • Some say current FSD (especially on newer hardware) handles thousands of miles with rare interventions and is already safer or more pleasant than human driving in good conditions.
  • Others found it “dangerous” or unusable in dense urban areas or bad weather, requiring frequent takeovers and being clearly inferior to Waymo.
• Several note it works best on freeways and in mild weather; snow and complex city environments remain problematic.

Waymo vs Tesla: data, tech, and progress

• Commenters highlight that Waymo has fewer but richer miles (full sensor suites, detailed logs, large-scale simulation) versus Tesla’s huge but mostly low-signal camera data excerpts.
• Argument that quality, diversity of “hard miles,” and strong simulators matter more than raw mileage counts; Tesla’s lack of lidar and weaker simulation are seen as structural disadvantages.
• Waymo is credited with a substantial commercial lead (millions of paid rides, expanding geofenced areas), while Tesla has no true robotaxi service yet.

Robotaxi launch expectations and teleoperation

• Many expect the “launch” to be extremely constrained: few cars, geofenced areas, remote operators, odd restrictions (times, routes), or further delays.
• A late job posting for teleoperation engineers days before launch is seen as evidence the system isn’t ready and may be heavily “Mechanical Turk-ed.”
• Some fear opaque small-scale rollouts will hide serious problems until a major incident occurs.

Media bias and perception

• Some claim Electrek has become reflexively anti-Tesla; others point out its earlier pro-Tesla stance and argue that turning critical now is itself evidence of Tesla’s trajectory.
• Broader discussion on online echo chambers (Reddit, HN) and how they distort perceptions of Musk, Tesla, and public sentiment.

Broader implications of robotaxis

• Discussion of robotaxis competing with human gig drivers and with public transit, especially in car-centric US cities.
• Concerns about vandalism and misuse of unattended vehicles, and that safety for bystanders (not riders) is the key social risk.