Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245B of gold home from US

Trust in the US and Political Risk

• Many commenters argue that current US political instability, especially rhetoric about freezing foreign assets or leaving NATO, makes storing reserves in the US risky.
• Others note distrust is not new: references to Nixon closing the gold window in 1971 and prior “rug pulls” (Bretton Woods) are cited as precedent.
• Some believe a future US administration might delay or outright block repatriation, potentially using trade sanctions or leverage over allies.

International Power, Law, and Realism

• Several point out that “law” matters only insofar as it can be enforced; in practice, power and dependencies (trade, military, sanctions) dominate.
• From a realist IR view, trust is always secondary to verifiable control and power; keeping reserves abroad is a calculated risk, not naive faith.

Why Store Gold Abroad? Why Bring It Back?

• Traditional reasons to hold gold in New York/London:
  • Ease of settlement via vault-to-vault transfers without moving metal.
  • Ability for a government-in-exile to access reserves if its territory is occupied.
• Repatriation is framed as:
  • A hedge against US asset freezes or political blackmail.
  • A signal of declining confidence in US reliability.
• Some argue concentration at home is riskier than splitting storage across jurisdictions with different risk profiles.

Is the Gold There? Verification and Conspiracies

• Past German audit disputes with the New York Fed are cited; limited physical access fueled speculation about missing or lent-out gold.
• Others counter that Germany has already repatriated significant tonnage ahead of schedule, which suggests the metal exists and the more extreme fears are unfounded.

Practicalities of Gold, Markets, and Testing

• Clarified that this is largely about physical bars, not paper claims.
• Ideas discussed: selling in the US and rebuying closer to home vs physically shipping; impact on gold markets of large moves.
• Long subthread on non-destructive testing of gold bars (density, conductivity, X-ray/XRF, advanced imaging) and tungsten-filled fakes.

Role and Value of Gold Reserves

• Gold seen as a low‑counterparty‑risk “war chest” and sanctions hedge, even if it doesn’t feed people or directly win wars.
• Some think gold’s importance is overrated compared to real productive capacity; others emphasize its persistent “irrational” safe‑haven value.

German Politics and “Pro‑Russia” Labeling

• Part of the thread debates that calls for repatriation in Germany are currently led mainly by fringe or populist parties often described as pro‑Russia and anti‑US.
• Pushback: repatriating one’s own gold is a legitimate debate regardless of who raises it; dismissing it as “Russian propaganda” is seen by some as a way to delegitimize domestic criticism.