America’s incarceration rate is in decline

Retail theft, “locked shelves,” and visible disorder

• Several comments fixate on locked-up deodorant/mouthwash and big-box security as symbols of crime, but others note:
  • Major “organized shoplifting epidemic” claims were later walked back.
  • Asset-protection people say locking items is often about shrink patterns, not staffing cuts.
  • Some see these measures as overreaction or “security theater” that doesn’t actually save labor or money.

What prison is for: cost, deterrence, and recidivism

• One side argues jailing petty thieves is irrational: incarceration costs tens of thousands per inmate, far exceeding the value of stolen goods, and prisons increase reoffending.
• Others counter that prisons deter would‑be offenders in the general population, even if they don’t rehabilitate those already imprisoned.
• There’s debate over evidence: some link to research that incarceration doesn’t reduce future offending and that certainty of being caught matters more than sentence length.

Plea bargaining, bail, and pretrial detention

• Some want strict limits on plea deals, believing prosecutors overcharge then coerce pleas; others reply the system would collapse without them, given current court capacity.
• Cash bail is criticized as wealth‑based detention; ending it in some places reportedly raised jail populations for serious offenders but reduced pretrial jailing for minor cases.
• Personal stories describe extreme bail amounts for poor defendants, horrid jail conditions pushing innocent people to plead, and judges doing cursory, arbitrary bail hearings.

Crime trends vs. measurement

• Many point out crime (especially violent crime and homicide) has fallen since the 1990s, but:
  • Some claim declines in reported crime partly reflect underreporting and police not responding to “less serious” offenses.
  • Others caution against policy by anecdote and stress that homicide trends are harder to hide.
• There’s a sub‑thread on how rates are expressed (per 100k vs. percentages) and the limits of official data when retail shrink isn’t always reported.

Why crime and incarceration might be falling

Multiple, often competing hypotheses are floated:

• Demographics & youth behavior

  • Fewer youths overall, older parents with more resources, and steep drops in teen pregnancy could mean fewer young offenders.
  • Smartphones, games, and social media keep teens indoors and supervised more, reducing street crime opportunities.
  • Youth are described as less sexually active, drinking less, and more risk‑averse.

• Environmental & health factors

  • Strong interest in the lead‑crime hypothesis: removal of leaded gasoline/paint aligns (with a lag) with drops in violent crime.
  • Some link ADHD diagnosis/treatment to reduced offending risk.

• Reproductive control

  • References to the “abortion and crime” argument: better access to abortion and contraception may reduce births into highly adverse circumstances; others note this explanation is heavily contested and not clearly causal.

• Drug policy & decarceration

  • Decriminalization or legalization of marijuana and softer responses to drug possession are seen as a major driver of lower prison counts, especially among youth.
  • The earlier war on drugs — harsh mandatory minimums and three‑strikes laws — is blamed for the original incarceration boom.

• Technology & economics of crime

  • Cashless payments, anti‑theft tech, CCTV ubiquity, and hard‑to‑fence consumer goods have made many traditional property crimes less profitable and riskier.
  • Profitable crime has shifted toward cybercrime and ransomware, which require skills most street offenders don’t have.

Private prisons and policy incentives

• Some worry that for‑profit prison firms and detention contractors will seek new “markets” (e.g., immigration detention) as prisoner headcount falls, leveraging long‑term bed‑payment contracts and lobbying.
• Others note these firms are not especially high‑margin businesses compared to tech, tempering the “omnipotent prison lobby” narrative.

Future risks and unresolved questions

• Skeptics argue lower incarceration doesn’t necessarily mean less harm if prosecutors under‑charge or don’t pursue repeat violent offenders; several anecdotes describe extremely lenient treatment of serious crimes.
• There’s concern that:
  • Rising functional illiteracy and screen‑addicted, socially isolated youth may produce new forms of crime (including cybercrime).
  • Aging, child‑sparse electorates may support harsher youth policies (“adult time for adult crime”) despite current declines.
• Overall, commenters agree incarceration is falling, but see the causes as multi‑factorial and politically contested, not yet clearly understood.