Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

Causation vs. correlation and macro factors

• Many argue the timing is coincidence: the decline in entry-level roles overlaps with post‑COVID hiring unwind, sharp interest rate hikes, trade/tariff shocks, and general economic uncertainty.
• UK‑specific changes (employer tax/NIC increases) and, in the US, R&D tax treatment and high rates are cited as more direct hiring dampeners.
• Overall job ads and pay are reportedly up, which some see as evidence against an AI-driven collapse, though entry-level shares are down.
• Several note that apprenticeships and non‑AI‑susceptible sectors (healthcare, logistics, construction, cleaning) are also down, suggesting broader economic pressures.

Where AI may plausibly matter

• Some see generative AI as an “innovative-sounding excuse” for weak performance, but others report concrete behavior: managers now actively seek AI-enabled tools (e.g. accounts payable) instead of hiring.
• Graduate roles in admin, customer service, paralegal work, and data analysis are viewed as especially exposed because LLMs already handle first‑tier support, drafting, discovery, and simple analysis.
• One view: even if tools are often non‑LLM, ChatGPT’s publicity pushes decision-makers toward automation rather than headcount.

Impact on developers and entry-level roles

• Multiple consultants report clients “only want seniors,” assuming one senior+AI can replace several juniors.
• Entry-level/junior developers are seen as squeezed hardest: fewer mentor-rich roles, higher expectations, and pressure to outperform AI while also learning to code without it.
• Some predict a temporary hiring pause in knowledge work if AI raises productivity faster than demand grows.

How LLMs are actually used

• Reported productivity gains vary from ~10–20% up to 2–4× in specific workflows; others say benefits are marginal or offset by debugging and oversight time.
• Common uses: boilerplate code, small scripts, refactors, planning, prototyping, quick research, and simple internal tooling.
• Quality and reliability concerns are widespread; many treat LLMs as an error-prone “unpaid intern” needing close review.

Offshoring, remote work, and labor structure

• Several argue remote work, wage arbitrage (H1B and offshore hiring), and consolidation into large firms are at least as important as AI in reducing local entry-level opportunities.
• Broader themes include crony capitalism, shrinking small businesses, wealth concentration, and a hollowing-out of the middle class.

Data, methodology, and skepticism

• Commenters criticize the article’s causal framing, sparse data presentation, and the source (a job-scraping site with its own incentives).
• Repeated calls are made for serious econometric work and better causal inference before attributing the entry‑level decline to ChatGPT.