Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries? (NBER)

Economic Factors vs. “Shifting Priorities”

• Thread centers on tension between the paper’s claim (“reordered priorities”) and commenters’ insistence that money and housing still matter a lot.
• Several point to unaffordable housing, unstable rentals, high childcare and education costs, and two-income mortgages as making kids practically impossible before mid‑30s.
• Others cite the paper’s evidence: housing and income do affect fertility, but only explain a small share of the long-term drop; large cash incentives move TFR by only a few hundredths.
• Some argue people rationalize economic constraints as “lifestyle choices” (sour-grapes effect).

Changing Norms, Lifestyles, and Opportunity Cost

• Many see a genuine shift in values: career, leisure, travel, autonomy, and consumer comforts often outrank parenthood, especially when there are more options for women.
• Having children is described as a “second full-time job” that competes with hobbies, mobility, and personal projects.
• Standards for what counts as a “good life” for children have risen sharply; some won’t have kids unless they can provide a high level of security and enrichment.

Gender Roles, Education, and Work

• Strong focus on women’s education and employment: higher education and career prospects increase the opportunity cost of motherhood and correlate with lower TFR.
• Traditional single‑earner norms made childbearing the default; dual‑career expectations make long leaves and large families much harder.
• Some note that fertility declines have been especially strong among poorer and younger women as unintended births fall.

Cultural and Technological Influences

• Commenters highlight smartphones/social media spreading global, individualist norms, glamorizing child‑free lifestyles, and amplifying expectations for “intensive parenting.”
• Safetyism and child-protection bureaucracy are seen as making kids feel like fragile, high‑liability “projects” rather than semi-autonomous family members.
• Urbanization and internet-based entertainment reduce boredom and the historic role of children as labor and old‑age insurance.

Global Pattern and Counterexamples

• Fertility is falling in very different contexts (East Asia, West Africa, Afghanistan, North Korea), suggesting no single economic or political cause.
• Housing‑poor but high‑fertility places (e.g., Israel) are cited as evidence that culture and social norms matter as much as prices.

Policy, Ethics, and Future Scenarios

• Debate over whether low fertility is a crisis (risk of demographic/economic collapse) or a non‑problem in an overpopulated world.
• Skepticism toward pronatalist campaigns; paper argues only early‑life, large, systemic changes could meaningfully raise completed fertility.
• Some discuss radical ideas (massive time subsidies for parents, big work‑hour cuts, or punitive financial incentives), but see little political will.