What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

War, Optimism, and the Original Baby Boom

  • Many commenters still instinctively credit WWII: mass death, shared sacrifice, and then relief, optimism, and economic expansion when it ended.
  • Others note the article’s point: US fertility started rising before WWII; war is at best an amplifier, not the root cause.
  • Post‑WWII conditions were unique: destroyed foreign competitors, Bretton Woods, reconstruction demand, GI Bill, strong unions, and widespread belief in a better future.
  • Several argue a WW3 today wouldn’t recreate that: global devastation, nukes, fragile supply chains, and no “untouched” industrial hegemon.

Economics: Housing, Childcare, and the Dual‑Income Trap

  • Repeated theme: young people can’t afford kids—rents and mortgages consume a salary, daycare is often $20–40k/year, and two incomes are required just to tread water.
  • Many say the postwar one‑income, house‑plus‑three‑kids lifestyle was a historical fluke tied to that unique boom, now replaced by “dual‑income trap” and precarious jobs.
  • Some propose solutions: generous child allowances, free or heavily subsidized childcare, tax breaks for single‑earner households, or even a wage for full‑time parenting. Others warn that real-world pronatal policies (Hungary, Quebec, Nordics) have moved fertility only slightly.

Culture, Autonomy, and Changing Values

  • Strong view that culture, not just money, shifted: contraception, abortion, women’s rights, higher female education, and meaningful careers make large families far less attractive.
  • Several argue that motherhood has become low‑status in the professional middle class, and parenting norms (intensive “24/7 adulting”) make each child feel like a life‑swallowing project.
  • Others blame individualism, “selfishness,” social media, and doom narratives (climate, politics, economic collapse) for reducing both optimism and desire for kids.
  • Religious subcultures are cited as a notable exception: devout groups (various faiths) still have high fertility in the same economic environment.

Demography, Stability, and Automation

  • Long debate over whether a shrinking, aging population is a crisis.
    • One camp: sub‑replacement fertility plus inverted age pyramids will break pensions, elder care, and political stability; 2.1 children per woman (or substantial immigration) is non‑negotiable.
    • Another camp: global population is already huge; some regional decline is fine, and future automation/AI might offset labor shortages if wealth is better distributed.
  • Skeptics of “AI will save us” stress that automation benefits are usually captured by elites and require massive upfront investment and ongoing human maintenance.

Gender Roles and Lived Parenting Costs

  • Multiple threads from women describe motherhood as exhausting, career‑damaging, and poorly supported, especially when both partners work full‑time and domestic labor falls unevenly.
  • Others counter that parenting is deeply rewarding, that social media exaggerates the hardship, and that multi‑generational support or simpler expectations make larger families feasible.