Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt crashed the model

Reaction to the “Crashed” Debt Model

• Many commenters see the non‑converging model as more an indictment of the model than of the US economy: if it can’t handle current debt levels, it may be poorly designed, numerically unstable, or based on unrealistic assumptions (e.g., automatic future “fixes”).
• Others argue the failure is a useful signal: the model cannot find a consistent long‑run path under current debt trajectories, which at least highlights growing fiscal risk.
• Several compare this to physics/engineering: when models “blow up,” it may mean buggy code, bad numerics, or an unphysical model—not necessarily imminent real‑world collapse.

Is Economics a Science?

• A large subthread debates whether economics—especially macro—is “science” or closer to religion / apologetics for power.
• Critics argue:
  • Models can’t be tested via controlled experiments on whole economies.
  • Explanations are often post‑hoc; causality is unclear; predictions frequently fail.
• Defenders respond:
  • Many sciences (geology, evolutionary biology, climate science) also rely on observational data and natural experiments.
  • Economics makes falsifiable predictions (e.g., about QE, tax cuts, interest rates); some schools’ models perform better than others.
  • The real issue is political actors ignoring evidence, not a lack of scientific method.

Perception, Behavior, and Politics

• Multiple commenters stress that perception often drives outcomes: central banks and policymakers use communication to shape expectations as much as to “predict” the future.
• There is criticism of economists as a “state religion” serving elites, but others note that many empirically supported ideas (e.g., land value taxes, budget discipline) are politically unattractive and thus ignored.
• One theme: people want policies that violate basic trade‑offs (“have their cake and eat it too”), then blame economics when told this is impossible.

Debt, Inflation, and Reserve Currency

• Some predict the US will ultimately “inflate away” unpayable debt, hurting bondholders and fixed‑income retirees but sparing asset holders.
• Discussion of metrics like interest payments as a share of federal revenue: this share has risen sharply recently but was also high in the 1980s, suggesting reversals are possible.
• Several highlight the unique buffer of US reserve‑currency status, while warning that protectionism and geopolitical antagonism could erode this privilege and destabilize the current arrangement.