Solar-plus-storage technology is improving quickly

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Cost comparisons: solar+storage vs gas and nuclear

  • Ongoing argument over levelized cost of energy (LCOE): some cite ~$70/MWh for new US gas vs similar or lower costs for solar+storage in sunny cities; others insist gas is still clearly cheaper, especially using marginal fuel costs from existing plants.
  • Several point out that European gas-fired power is far more expensive than US figures, making solar (even with storage) already cheaper there.
  • Others note nuclear remains significantly more expensive than solar+storage in most current builds, though some argue nuclear’s cost is inflated by policy and bespoke designs.

Baseload, reliability, and “myth” debates

  • One camp argues “baseload is a myth”: with a mix of renewables, nuclear, hydro, storage, transmission, and load shifting, you can meet reliability targets without coal/gas baseload.
  • Skeptics highlight multi-day/seasonal low-wind/low-sun events (“dunkelflaute”) and argue you still need gas peakers or long-duration storage, making pure solar+storage less realistic.
  • Discussion acknowledges batteries are excellent for daily shifting but not yet economical for seasonal storage; complementing with wind, hydro and limited fossil backup is seen as more practical.

Regional variation and transmission

  • California is seen as a best-case solar lab: real-time data shows evening peaks now heavily served by batteries charged from midday solar, displacing gas.
  • Critics say California isn’t a universal benchmark; supporters reply that many US states have comparable or better insolation and that HVDC lines can move power long distances with low losses.
  • For cloudy/high-latitude areas (e.g., UK, Germany, Michigan), commenters argue you can overbuild solar, lean more on wind and hydro, and still get meaningful decarbonization at acceptable cost.

Policy, tariffs, and utility business models

  • Strong disagreement over US tariffs on Chinese solar/batteries: some see them as self-sabotage during a climate crisis; others emphasize China’s state-subsidized overcapacity and strategic concerns (including inverter security).
  • Heated debate on “solar taxes” and net metering:
    • Homeowners like retail-rate net metering; critics say it’s unsustainable because it forces utilities to buy at retail while still funding fixed grid costs.
    • Proposals to separate generation vs distribution charges and to pay “value of solar” wholesale rates are defended as fairer to non-solar customers but attacked as hostile to rooftop solar.

Battery technology, materials, and scale

  • Many note rapid cost declines and diversification: LiFePO₄ for EV/grid, early sodium-ion deployments, and other chemistries reduce reliance on scarce materials like cobalt and nickel.
  • Several argue lithium scarcity fears were overstated: as demand rose, reserves and production expanded, keeping prices trending down.
  • Environmental concerns about large-scale battery deployment (fire risk, end-of-life) are raised, with replies pointing to recyclability and lower systemic risk compared to fossil infrastructure.

Grid build‑out, curtailment, and markets

  • Examples from Brazil and the UK show solar/wind growth hitting grid and transmission constraints, leading to curtailment and stalled projects; commenters frame this as political and planning failure, not a tech limit.
  • Some argue batteries located at constrained nodes can absorb surplus and relieve grid stress; others emphasize the need to reform market rules so cheap renewables can outcompete legacy coal/gas rather than be curtailed to protect incumbents.

Household/off‑grid economics and use cases

  • Multiple anecdotes of fully off‑grid or grid‑as‑backup setups (cabins, rural homes, RVs) show solar+batteries already competitive where grid connection is expensive.
  • In low-electricity-cost, hydro-dominated regions, rooftop solar is often not yet economical without subsidies; utility-scale renewables are seen as the main decarbonization lever there.
  • Some foresee widespread rural grid defection in 10–20 years as panel and storage costs fall, especially if utilities shift more costs onto remaining customers.

Industrial and data center loads

  • Commenters point out that gigantic new AI datacenters (e.g., 2 GW facilities) are planning on dedicated gas turbines, not solar+storage, despite some owners also selling batteries and solar.
  • Reasons suggested: energy density (thousands of acres of panels for multi‑GW), land constraints near load, current battery costs for multi‑day reliability, and gas’s simplicity for firm, always-on capacity.

Overall sentiment

  • Broad agreement that solar and batteries have advanced faster and gotten cheaper than many expected, and are increasingly cost-competitive for a large share of demand.
  • Persistent disagreements focus on: how far they can go without large residual fossil backup; whether policy is accelerating or obstructing the transition; and how to fairly allocate grid costs as distributed solar scales.