Denver rent is back to 2022 prices after 20k new units hit the market

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Supply, Demand, and the Denver Case

  • Many see Denver as a clean example that “build more, prices fall”: 20k new units (5% of stock) coincides with rents easing back toward 2022 levels.
  • Others stress the drop is small (≈3–4%) relative to huge run-ups since 2019, so it feels like “a corrective blip” rather than true affordability.
  • Several note the construction pipeline is already shrinking due to high interest rates, so this may be the bottom of a short trough before rents rise again.

Can Building Alone Solve the Housing Crisis?

  • One camp argues that if Denver added ~5% of its housing stock every year for a decade, the housing crisis there would effectively be solved; they see this as fundamentally a supply-side problem.
  • Skeptics raise “induced demand”: cheaper, denser cities attract more people and jobs, potentially keeping prices high in popular metros.
  • Counter-argument: induced demand is finite; if many cities upzone and build, net national demand can be met, and case studies (Denver, Austin, Bozeman) show large building waves do lower rents.
  • There’s broad agreement that building needs to be easier everywhere, but disagreement on whether that will push prices down a lot or just stabilize them.

Homeowners, Speculation, and Political Constraints

  • Extensive debate over what happens if aggressive building actually drives prices down:
    • Some say underwater homeowners shouldn’t be “bailed out”; if you overpaid, that’s a risk like any other investment.
    • Others argue housing has been deliberately turned into a de facto savings vehicle by policy; crashing prices without compensation would politically doom pro-building reforms.
  • Many emphasize that homeowners vote at higher rates and often block upzoning; some propose explicit compensation or gradual policies (e.g., holding nominal prices flat) to neutralize opposition.

Homelessness, Poverty, and Housing as a Right

  • YIMBY-style “build more” is criticized as insufficient for street homelessness and extreme poverty; calls appear for a robust public housing sector and treating housing as a human right.
  • Others argue cheaper market rents still help the poor by preventing new homelessness and freeing up lower-tier units; every added unit “percolates down” the housing ladder.
  • Strong value conflict: some prioritize universal shelter regardless of work status; others insist public support should focus on “working people” and tie assistance to treatment or behavior.

Market vs. Public Solutions and Ownership Norms

  • Some want both: slash barriers to private construction and also fund large-scale social/public housing; they note cheaper construction also makes public housing cheaper to build.
  • Others distrust private developers entirely, pointing out they don’t build to lower prices and may overbuild only by accident; proposals include capping investment properties or heavily taxing multi-property ownership.
  • Debate over homeownership “fetishization”: critics say treating homes as investments locks in a permanent renter underclass; defenders respond that ownership is still the main path to middle-class wealth and stability.

Healthcare Analogy and Limits of Econ 101

  • A large side thread tries to extend the “just build more” logic to medicine: expand residency slots, import doctors, and train more NPs/PAs to cut costs.
  • Pushback notes US healthcare deviates from simple supply–demand: information asymmetry, insurance as third-party payer, and strong professional gatekeeping complicate the picture.

Local Conditions, Measurement, and Lived Experience

  • Some Coloradans report large personal rent hikes (e.g., +30%) from big REIT landlords using algorithmic pricing, and don’t believe the “rents are down” narrative.
  • Others report noticeable drops or much better negotiating leverage, suggesting highly uneven effects by neighborhood, landlord type, and building class.
  • There are concerns that “average rent” statistics might be skewed by many new, smaller or lower-quality units, while older, comparable units remain expensive.

Demographics and Long-Term Pressure

  • One view holds that low birthrates will eventually ease housing pressure as population growth slows, given that housing stock persists with maintenance.
  • Another warns that shrinking populations bring serious economic downsides; better to tackle zoning and construction costs than rely on demographic decline.