The Dollar Is Dead

State of the Dollar vs “Death” Narrative

• Many see the article as doom‑y: politics are messy and debt is high, but that’s been true before and the dollar is still dominant.
• Several note that recent FX moves (e.g., ~10–15% vs EUR this year) are normal volatility on top of a long period of dollar strength.
• Others argue the “death” will be slow erosion of trust in US institutions rather than a sudden collapse.

Reserve Currency Status & Lack of Alternatives

• Strong consensus that no clear replacement exists: yuan blocked by capital controls and low political trust; BRICS currency seen as legally unstable; gold or commodity baskets have scaling and war‑risk problems.
• Some expect a multi‑polar system: several major regional or reserve currencies instead of a single hegemon.
• Others argue that if the dollar goes, global chaos is likely before any new equilibrium emerges.

Institutions, Politics, and the Fed

• A key worry is not yield‑curve “loss of control” but potential politicization of the Fed and tighter coupling of monetary to fiscal policy.
• Declining confidence in US courts and rule of law is raised, but countered by “still better than others” and strong separation of powers.
• Tariffs and erratic trade policy are seen by some as proof of US strength, by others as proof of unreliability and institutional weakening.

Debt, Deficits, Inflation, and Taxation

• Broad agreement that US fiscal path (high and rising debt‑to‑GDP, large deficits) is unsustainable long‑term.
• Disagreement on diagnosis: “overspending” vs “undertaxing,” especially of extreme wealth.
• Many expect eventual inflationary debt erosion, disproportionately hurting workers/young and fixed‑income creditors.
• Others note that most peers (EU, China) also have serious structural issues, so the US only needs to be “less bad.”

Global & Alternative Systems

• Euro is debated: some see relatively rational governance and potential as a secondary reserve; others emphasize design flaws, uneven fiscal policies, and stagnation.
• China’s rise, Africa/India’s demographics, and Europe’s dependence on US security/energy all appear, but with no consensus.
• Crypto and stablecoins are viewed as reinforcing USD dominance today but potentially accelerating a switch if trust in the dollar cracks.