A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth (2022)

Use of night lights for US / modern economies

• Some ask if night lights could be used inside the US when official statistics might be politicized (e.g., job reports, firings of stats officials).
• Others argue the executive can’t fully hide key data in a financialized economy: there’s too much profit (“alpha”) in knowing the truth, so private data vendors and banks will keep independent datasets, even if paywalled.
• Jobs data are seen as inherently fuzzy and subject to revisions; disagreement over whether revisions reflect normal statistical noise or political pressure.

Validity and limits of light-as-GDP proxy

• Many see lights as useful for long-term trends but too noisy year-to-year.
• Concerns: shifts from heavy industry to services, high-rise living, more efficient LEDs, “dark” automated factories, changing social patterns (phones, indoor life) all reduce light per unit of GDP.
• Counterargument: those modernization factors exist in democracies too, yet the light/GDP mismatch appears mainly in authoritarian states beyond certain income thresholds, suggesting data manipulation rather than pure structural change.
• Several note it’s unlikely to be a simple linear model; calibration and baseline maps matter.

Alternative indicators and data politics

• Past proxies in China: electricity use, freight, bank loans (Li Keqiang Index), now considered less relevant as the economy digitizes and central authorities gain many new proxy sources.
• Historical spycraft mentioned: industrial chemicals like hydrochloric acid as capacity proxies.
• Some claim most basic macro figures can be externally checked (prices, wages), limiting how far any regime can lie.

Dictatorships, “good autocrats,” and Western hypocrisy

• Many treat “dictators lie about growth” as obvious; debate centers on whether some autocrats have delivered real gains.
• Examples invoked on both sides, with heated argument over Russia’s trajectory under strongman rule and whether it is a “superpower” or a failing, overextended state.
• Others highlight repression in Western democracies (arrests over speech, social media posts) and question who gets to classify countries as “free,” expressing distrust of NGO freedom indices.

Local lighting policies and counterexamples

• A wealthy European district reportedly turned off most streetlights for sleep, energy, and ecology; residents feel safe, challenging a simplistic “more light = richer” assumption.
• Similar partial shutoffs or dimming described in parts of the UK and Germany, framed as both cost-cutting and environmental.
• Some say darkness is manageable (eyes adapt; few dangerous animals), others worry about safety and prefer at least directional, low-pollution lighting.

Meta-critique of this specific study

• A thread of comments claims this widely cited lights-vs-GDP paper uses outdated or crude methods, especially for China.
• They contrast it with a more sophisticated 2017 study by major economic researchers allegedly finding Chinese GDP was, if anything, underreported from night-light data.
• Critics argue media repeatedly promote the “authoritarians inflate GDP” story because it fits a preferred narrative, while less convenient findings are ignored.