South Korea's military has shrunk by 20% in six years as male population drops

Scale and Meaning of South Korea’s Population Decline

• Some see South Korea and Japan as having “won” economically but now facing demographic self‑erasure.
• Others argue “collapse” is overstated: current populations are far larger than mid‑20th‑century levels, and some shrinkage might be environmentally beneficial.
• Counterpoint: a 0.7 fertility rate implies extreme aging and >75% population loss over a century, which many consider a genuine systemic threat.

Debate on Long‑Term Projections

• One side: century‑scale extrapolations are “just math” and vital for planning (e.g., inverted age pyramids).
• Other side: assuming current trends’ second derivative is constant is seen as naive; historical fertility has shifted unpredictably.

Economic, Welfare, and Military Implications

• Concern that too few workers will support many retirees, collapsing pension systems and constraining problem‑solving capacity.
• Fears of retirees voting themselves unsustainable benefits.
• Military manpower shrinkage is framed as an early, measurable symptom.

Causes: Culture, Urbanization, and Work–Life Balance

• Many comments blame hyper‑capitalist, overworked cultures (SK, JP, increasingly India, US) that make family life unattractive or unaffordable.
• Others emphasize changing preferences: people choosing lifestyle, media, and careers over children, even with subsidies.
• Women’s empowerment and urbanization are both cited as major drivers of low fertility.

Effectiveness of Pronatalist Policies

• Examples from Nordic countries, France, Eastern Europe, Russia, South Korea, and Hungary: incentives raise fertility slightly or temporarily but don’t reach replacement.
• Some argue current programs are too weak; “real” pronatalism would mean free childcare, healthcare, transport, large housing and cost subsidies, and long, well‑paid parental leave.
• Others think even very generous schemes can’t overcome the perceived effort and opportunity cost of multiple children.

Immigration, Identity, and Alternative Paths

• Europe and the UK are described as offsetting decline with immigration, raising debates about integration, culture, and “replacement” narratives.
• Some see immigration as the only realistic lever; others call it zero‑sum or politically destabilizing.
• A minority argues illiberal/authoritarian measures (tax penalties, compulsory childbearing, bans on “distractions”) might be tried, but most note such paths would be dystopian and untested.