The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

Overpopulation Panic vs. Today’s Low-Fertility Fears

• Several commenters contrast 1970s overpopulation doomsaying (famines, coercive sterilization, racist “triage” ideas) with today’s underpopulation panic, arguing elites always jump to “curtail rights” (then geography/race, now gender).
• Others note some countries did hit resource stress (e.g., India’s water), but earlier predictions of hundreds of millions starved were flatly wrong.

Economic Consequences: Welfare States, Debt, and Capitalism

• Low TFR is seen as destabilizing pay‑as‑you‑go pensions, passive asset returns, and growth‑based capitalism; projections suggest large increases in GDP share for pensions/healthcare.
• Some argue this is mostly a policy choice (e.g., raise contribution caps, higher taxes), others foresee a “demographic doom loop” where worsening prospects further depress fertility.
• Debate over government size: one side points to necessary modern services; the other emphasizes waste, regulation, and inflationary deficit spending.

Housing, Cities, and Family Formation

• High rent and lack of larger apartments are repeatedly blamed for delayed or forgone children, especially in dense US metros.
• Historically large families in small spaces are cited as counterexamples; critics respond modern expectations and two‑income necessity make that politically/socially untenable.
• Strong evidence and anecdotes that dense cities systematically suppress fertility compared to suburbs, even controlling for income.

Causes of Falling Fertility

• Falling fertility is noted as global, across rich/poor and education levels, with especially rapid declines in Latin America and parts of Africa.
• Suggested drivers: urbanization, women’s education and work, reliable contraception/abortion, cultural individualism, pessimism, and “work > family” norms.
• Religion and pronatalist cultures are seen as the main groups still sustaining larger families.

Immigration and Fiscal Impact

• The slides’ claim that “most immigrants worsen the fiscal position of the government” triggers intense debate.
• Some cite detailed Danish data showing lifetime net costs for many non‑Western immigrant groups; critics challenge methodology, selection bias, and note economic value ≠ tax surplus.
• There’s also concern about “brain drain” from poorer countries and the political weaponization of such statistics.

Automation, Robots, and Shrinking Populations

• Multiple comments argue that automation (including warehouse robots, potential AGI) will offset labor shortages, making fewer workers compatible with high output.
• Counterpoint: some labor‑intensive sectors (elder care, childcare) may resist automation, potentially becoming bottlenecks.

Data Quality and Regional Uncertainty

• Several participants claim African (and possibly Chinese) population figures are substantially overstated, citing satellite imagery, banking IDs, SIM counts, and local incentives to inflate census numbers; others push back strongly and call this arrogant or anecdotal.

Culture, Rights, and “Solutions”

• Deep unease about authoritarian “solutions”: forced pronatalism, restricting women’s rights, or technocratic schemes like artificial wombs.
• Others argue the only durable lever is cultural: re‑centering family, rebuilding community, and accepting lower material consumption rather than sacrificing autonomy.
• A minority is relaxed or positive about gradual depopulation, seeing it as easing environmental and climate pressures, even if it breaks current growth‑centric systems.

Long-Run Evolution and Selection Effects

• Some speculate that in an era of easy birth control, people with stronger intrinsic desire for children—and more religious or optimistic cultures—will be strongly selected for, potentially leading to a future rebound driven by those subpopulations.