I'm worried it might get bad

Causes of Current Layoffs and Weak Job Market

• Many see “AI layoffs” as cover for other forces: overhiring during the cheap-money era, tax-code changes affecting R&D expensing, higher rates, and saturated markets.
• Others think “overhiring in 2020” is overstated, arguing the tech job market was actually weak that year and never fully normalized afterward.
• Some claim big firms have internal plans to shrink headcount dramatically; others challenge how anyone could know those “internal roadmaps.”
• A recurring point: companies are often not replacing attrition rather than doing large explicit cuts, which still depresses hiring.

How Real Is AI-Driven Job Loss?

• Several commenters doubt that AI productivity gains are yet large enough to justify mass layoffs; AI is seen as a convenient narrative for cost-cutting.
• Public claims like “50% of work is done by AI” are widely viewed as PR spin; people note that these same companies are still hiring engineers.
• Others argue AI is already good enough to noticeably reduce non-physical “drudgery” work and that leadership may underestimate its limitations.

Future of Software Work and Skills

• Some expect no crash: past mechanization made jobs more technical rather than eliminating them; humans will keep inventing new work.
• Others foresee a sharp contraction: AI as a “junior/mid dev” that never becomes senior, hollowing out entry-level roles and eventually many mid-level ones.
• Concerns include: loss of domain knowledge in AI-written codebases, lack of incentives to fix buggy AI code, and the possibility of AI-based formal verification eventually replacing human reviewers.
• A minority is highly optimistic about AI as a “power tool” that improves code quality when guided by experienced developers.

Work Hours, UBI, and Economic Design

• Some argue the real solution is shorter workweeks (e.g., 32 or even 18 hours), not trying to preserve all current jobs.
• There’s debate over whether reduced hours would inevitably cut pay in current systems, especially in the US with employer-tied healthcare and housing scarcity.
• UBI is discussed as redistribution, with long threads on whether it would be inflationary, how it’s funded (taxes vs money printing), and demand shifts between necessities and luxuries.
• Underlying disagreement: is work primarily about survival, social duty, or personal meaning?

Macro Risks: Economy, Inequality, and Politics

• Commenters link tech precarity to broader trends: inflation, consumers cutting spending, deglobalization, demographic shifts, and high national debt servicing.
• Many emphasize wealth inequality and under-taxed corporations as the bigger structural problem; without consumer purchasing power, B2B tech demand must fall.
• Some expect AI to be either a bubble (leading to a crash) or truly automating large swathes of work, with both paths described as “damned either way.”

Social Stability and Unrest

• Several worry about a scenario of mass layoffs, homelessness, and rising crime leading to unrest or riots against “the rich.”
• Others note how effective distraction (“bread and circuses”) and polarization have been in redirecting anger away from elites.
• There is specific anxiety about a potential political crisis: weakened institutions, authoritarian tendencies, and desperate voters could amplify economic shocks.

Historical Parallels and Adaptation

• Some say this kind of “it might get bad” essay appears every generation; actual recessions are only obvious in hindsight.
• Others counter that the conjunction of AI, inequality, fragile politics, and climate feels qualitatively different.
• A few point out that many countries live with chronic instability; from that perspective, US tech workers may be experiencing a rough normalization rather than an unprecedented collapse.

Labor Power and Professional Identity

• Multiple commenters argue developers will wish they had unions or professional organizations like doctors and lawyers; high pay dulled earlier organizing.
• There’s also critique of a culture that ties identity and self-worth too tightly to work, making job loss psychologically destructive in addition to economic harm.

Meta-Views on the Article

• Some see the piece as fearmongering, overly trusting corporate AI claims, and US-centric panic.
• Others think the emotional tone is justified: even if AI is partly a scapegoat, current patterns of precarity and concentration of power look genuinely dangerous if left unaddressed.