It's the Housing, Stupid

Structural & Legal Barriers to New Housing

• Several comments describe years‑long pro‑housing rezoning efforts being stalled by lawsuits from a handful of nearby owners.
• One side sees this as a structural failure where a few households can override a broad democratic process and freeze supply.
• The other side argues this is how constitutional democracy and standing are supposed to work: courts protect minority rights and ensure governments honor zoning “promises” (e.g., blocking an asphalt plant in a residential area).
• Others say the real structural flaw is the existence of tools like single‑family zoning and highly litigable processes, which create strong incentives for incumbents to exclude newcomers.

Upzoning: Necessary but Not Sufficient

• Broad agreement that zoning is only one factor among many (labor, land, finance, regulation).
• Dispute over evidence: some cite research and Zurich as examples where upzoning slowed or reduced prices locally; skeptics say they see arguments but not clear price‑drop case studies, and note effects can take 5–10+ years.
• Some argue upzoning is “necessary but not sufficient,” others worry it morphs into “urban renewal” and loss of historic fabric.

Housing, Interest Rates & Investment Timing

• Multiple comments dissect a couple’s strategy of holding T‑bills waiting for lower prices or mortgage rates.
• Some say this missed huge equity gains; others counter that short‑term housing money shouldn’t sit in volatile stocks and that the true error was assuming an imminent crash.
• Several note you can buy with high rates and refinance later; trying to time both rates and prices is framed as gambling.

Economic, Social & Cultural Effects of High Housing Costs

• High rents and prices are seen as directly harming:
  • Startup formation and bootstrapping.
  • Artists and, more severely, working‑class renters.
  • The “mood” of younger generations, driving nihilism and resentment.
• Some argue lack of housing (or unaffordability) is the central economic problem; others say the deeper root is treating housing primarily as an investment and broader wealth inequality.

Homeownership vs. Housing as an Asset

• Pro‑ownership arguments: stability, control over one’s space, predictable costs in retirement (especially with tax caps), and psychological “freedom.”
• Critics stress:
  • Viewing primary residences as growth assets is incompatible with broad affordability.
  • The classic “buy big, then downsize to fund retirement” model is breaking where there’s nowhere affordable to downsize to.
• Debate over whether appreciation mainly reflects inflation vs. policy‑driven scarcity and financialization.

Starter Homes, Condos & Alternatives

• Older 2br/1ba “shoebox” starter homes are praised; commenters say nothing similar is built now, partly due to changing expectations (extra bathrooms) and land costs.
• Condos are proposed as logical starter/retiree housing, but many see HOA/condo fees as opaque and excessive; others reply that big buildings genuinely have high shared costs, especially when maintenance is deferred.
• A long subthread explores “Latin American style” incremental self‑build (RV or tiny house on cheap land, expanding over time).
  • Some have done this in lightly regulated U.S. counties; others note it’s outright illegal or heavily constrained in most places, and often far from jobs and services.

NIMBYism, Inequality & Systemic Dynamics

• Several comments tie NIMBYism to middle‑class homeowners protecting asset values and neighborhood character, empowered by process tools and “community participation” that mainly attracts highly motivated opponents.
• Others emphasize macro‑inequality: vast capital at the top must seek returns, so it floods into assets (including housing), driving asset‑price inflation detached from wages.
• There’s disagreement whether inequality or supply restriction is the primary driver, but many expect worsening social tension if current trends persist.