Tesla insiders have sold more than 50% of their shares in the last year
Insider Selling, Valuation, and “Meme Stock” Dynamics
- Many see heavy insider selling as rational diversification, especially given Tesla’s perceived “rocky” future and extreme valuation (high P/E, larger cap than multiple major automakers combined).
- Several commenters think the stock is clearly overbought and driven by belief in Musk rather than fundamentals, but note the market can stay irrational for years, making shorting risky.
- Others argue that passive investing (index funds buying whatever is biggest) helps sustain inflated prices.
Tesla’s Competitive Position and Product Quality
- One camp says Tesla still has a big engineering lead in EV internals (reliability, simplicity, efficiency).
- Critics counter that this advantage has eroded, especially versus Chinese EVs; Tesla lags on suspension comfort, cabin noise, and interior quality.
- Some acknowledge recent Model 3/Y refreshes improved interiors, but premium features (e.g., richer trim/options) are still missing.
- Cybertruck is cited as a turning point: technically interesting but impractical and poorly finished, reinforcing a narrative of over‑promising and under‑delivering.
FSD, Robotaxis, Robotics, and Batteries
- Bulls see upside in full self‑driving: potential robotaxi networks with Uber‑like economics but no drivers, and spillover to trucking.
- Skeptics compare FSD optimism to perpetual “nuclear fusion” promises; they also note competition from Waymo and others will likely compress margins.
- Some question whether robotics or batteries justify premium valuations, given these are capital‑intensive, highly competitive, lower‑margin businesses.
Index Investing, Hedging, and Excluding TSLA
- Several investors dislike holding TSLA via index funds and want “S&P minus Tesla” products.
- Workarounds discussed: direct indexing with exclusion lists, equal‑weight funds, buying puts or inverse TSLA ETFs (with warnings about leveraged ETF decay).
- Others argue stock‑picking and exclusions typically hurt performance, and that index outperformance partly comes from automatic rebalancing.
Broader Auto Industry, Chinese Competition, and Policy
- Wider debate: legacy US/European automakers are seen as having squandered chances on EVs and small, affordable cars.
- Some welcome Chinese EV makers (e.g., BYD) as needed disruption; others highlight tariffs, political resistance, and “racism” in anti‑China rhetoric.
- There’s side discussion on societal goals: cheap cars vs. local industrial jobs, Pigouvian taxes on large SUVs/pickups, and urban‑vs‑suburban cultural friction.
Musk’s Management and Governance
- The firing of the entire Supercharger team after NACS became a standard is cited as a clear mismanagement signal; later rehiring attempts reinforce that view.
- Defenders point to continued charger network growth and downplay the incident.
- Some argue Musk’s relatively small ownership should allow shareholders to remove him; others note complicated internal power dynamics and cult‑of‑personality effects.