US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, unemployment highest in 4 yrs
Fed, Weak Labor Market, and Rate Cuts
- Several comments note a weak labor market increases pressure on the Fed to cut rates, both via its dual mandate (employment + stable prices) and political pressure for booming markets.
- Others argue current unemployment (4.3%) and still-elevated inflation don’t justify cuts and that rate reductions in such an environment risk stagflation.
- There’s debate over whether the Fed is really targeting “full employment” or functionally keeping labor cheap by treating rising wages as a problem.
Tariffs, Dollar, and Consumer Impact
- Many see tariffs plus a weakening dollar as a de facto regressive consumption tax that shifts the burden to the middle and lower classes and raises prices broadly.
- Some argue tariffs might encourage domestic production and capital investment; skeptics say policy chaos and high input costs will just push capital abroad.
- There’s disagreement on how “weak” the dollar actually is: down notably year-to-date but still strong by long-run standards.
BLS Leadership and Data Integrity
- Heavy scrutiny is placed on the incoming BLS commissioner’s academic background and thin research record; some find the credentials normal, others call them unqualified.
- Concerns are raised that the administration is purging professionals and pressuring statistics agencies, eroding trust in official jobs and inflation data.
Unemployment Metrics, Gig Work, and Revisions
- Multiple comments highlight downward revisions to recent jobs reports and the first negative month since 2020 as more significant than the August headline.
- There’s a claim (disputed within the thread) that gig work causes systematic overstatement of job openings and understatement of unemployment.
- Broad agreement that headline numbers understate distress for workers, especially when gig work and delayed revisions are considered.
Housing, Rates, and ZIRP Aftermath
- Long subthread argues high prices are fundamentally a supply problem: only building more or making places less desirable reduces prices.
- Others emphasize financial engineering, speculation, investment homes, and regulation as major drivers.
- The legacy of near-zero rates is seen as having “ratcheted” homeowners into cheap mortgages and frozen mobility, complicating rate policy.
AI, Tech Sector, and Layoffs
- Some commenters link rising unemployment to “AI agents” and automation; others say AI is mostly a pretext for cost-cutting after COVID over-hiring and tariff uncertainty.
- There’s disagreement on AI hype: some see it fading (hiring freezes, cutbacks), others report growing business demand and real utility.
Markets, Rate Cuts, and Investing Behavior
- Many note the market seems to rally both on good and bad macro news, adding to a sense of irrationality.
- Strong consensus advice in the thread: don’t time the market; dollar-cost average and buy-and-hold generally win over long horizons.
- Some point out equity gains may largely reflect dollar devaluation and inflation expectations.
Trump’s Strategy, Populism, and Distributional Effects
- One line of discussion frames Trump’s policies (tariffs, anti-immigration, anti-China) as coherent appeals to deindustrialized regions, especially coal country.
- Critics argue the actual effects shift taxes onto consumers, hurt businesses (especially via chaotic implementation), and mainly benefit leveraged asset owners.
- There is anxiety about attempts to pressure or replace Fed leadership and about using tariffs and devaluation as tools to manage the debt and reward real-estate-style leverage.
DOGE and Federal Contract “Savings”
- Some celebrate claimed massive savings from contract cancellations by the new cost-cutting office; others cite reporting that verifiable savings are far smaller.
- The subthread quickly devolves into a dispute over credibility of the office’s numbers and of media fact-checks.