Tesla offers mammoth $1T pay package to Musk, sets lofty targets

Pay Package Structure & Intent

• Package is entirely stock-based and vests only if Tesla’s valuation increases roughly 7.5–8x over a decade, plus hitting operational milestones.
• Supporters say this aligns incentives: if the “nearly impossible” targets are met, shareholders get rich alongside Musk; if not, they pay nothing.
• Critics see it as an “open invitation” to manipulate stock price and definitions of milestones (e.g., what counts as a “robotaxi” or “FSD subscription”).
• Some view it as a psychological tool to keep investors from exiting a hype-driven bubble.

Current Business, Competition & Brand

• Several comments argue Tesla’s early-mover advantage in EVs is gone: cheaper and/or better EVs (BYD, European brands) are cited, plus commoditization of batteries.
• There are claims of falling sales, revenue, profits, and EV market share, along with brand damage from Musk’s public persona and politics.
• Others counter that Tesla remains profitable, with low debt and leading products (e.g., Model Y, Powerwall), especially compared to money-losing rivals.
• Disagreement over whether Tesla is still “revolutionizing” solar or just dominating a narrow accessory niche.

Robots, Autonomy & “Next S-Curve”

• Bulls see robots, robo-taxis, and new products as the real growth story; some assert Tesla’s humanoid robot could become “the most advanced consumer product ever.”
• Skeptics point to decades of overpromised timelines (notably Full Self Driving), Boring Company’s modest Vegas tunnels, and practical issues of home robots (dirt, damage, safety).
• Comparisons are made to robotics competitors (Chinese firms, Figure, Boston Dynamics/Unitree); some argue there’s no moat and Tesla is behind, others dismiss rivals as vaporware.
• One view: Tesla’s edge in autonomy is not technical superiority but willingness to ship at lower safety readiness and lean on regulatory capture.

Valuation, Bubble Concerns & Macro

• Some argue that after seeing other mega-cap stocks break psychological ceilings, “any valuation is possible,” even multi-trillion for Tesla.
• Others say Tesla’s P/E and market cap are “disconnected from reality,” describing it as a bubble sustained by hype and fear of missing out.
• A few tie future valuation to macro factors like inflation, political moves against Fed independence, and geopolitical instability, though the causal links remain speculative and contested.

Musk’s Behavior & Focus

• Some hope the package nudges Musk to focus on Tesla instead of social media and culture wars; others doubt larger numbers will change his behavior.
• His public promotion of controversial political ideas is seen by some as implicitly endorsed by a board willing to grant this package.