Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Impact on USPS, Private Carriers, and Consumers

  • Some expect USPS’s finances to improve if it no longer has to subsidize underpriced inbound international mail.
  • Others argue USPS will lose volume and revenue, helping a long‑running push toward privatization.
  • Private carriers may gain business by handling customs paperwork, but users report dramatically higher shipping and brokerage costs (e.g., $30 item + $60 DHL shipping).

De Minimis Exemption, Tariffs, and Implementation Chaos

  • Many commenters think the 80% drop is mostly about eliminating the de minimis exemption for small parcels, not tariffs alone.
  • There is broad support for cracking down on large‑scale abuse (e.g., Temu/AliExpress‑style small parcels, past postal treaty subsidies for China).
  • Criticism focuses on rushed, chaotic rollout: 88 postal operators suspended US‑bound services because systems to collect duties and integrate with US authorities weren’t ready.
  • Uncertainty about what tariff rate will apply at arrival makes shipping risky; some predict “empty shelves, less choice, higher prices.”

Effects on Small Business, Niche Products, and Personal Life

  • Small import‑dependent businesses, dropshippers, and niche makers (e.g., custom PCBs, Etsy tailors) are reported to be shutting down or pausing.
  • Formal customs entry and new fees can turn a $50 item into $80–130, killing many low‑value cross‑border sales.
  • Noncommercial mail is also hit: gifts, hand‑knits, cards, and care packages from family abroad are being blocked or made prohibitively complex.

Economic Outlook and Inequality

  • Several see this as one of many “alarm bells” pointing to a coming recession or even depression, potentially worse than 2008.
  • Others note that AI‑driven stock gains and infrastructure spending are masking wider economic weakness and fueling a bubble.
  • Suggested hedges range from gold/commodities to diversified portfolios and local community investment.

International Relations, Canada, and Soft Power

  • Some non‑US commenters express schadenfreude or hope a US downturn forces structural change; others warn Canada and allies will also be harmed given tight economic links.
  • Canadian posters describe feeling economically bullied (tariffs, annexation talk), accelerating efforts to re‑orient trade away from the US.
  • Several argue the episode further erodes trust in US policy stability and the dollar, and will prompt some foreign businesses to stop serving US customers.

Tourism and Perception of the US

  • A few foreigners say they now avoid visiting the US out of fear of mistreatment or detention, despite data suggesting only a modest drop in international arrivals overall.

USPS as a Public Service

  • One thread debates whether postal services are truly a “public good” in the economic sense versus a valuable public service.
  • Examples from Canada (Canada Post cuts, community mailboxes, reduced delivery) spark discussion on how much physical mail citizens actually still need versus the social value of affordable letters and small parcels.