Denmark close to wiping out cancer-causing HPV strains after vaccine roll-out

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Effectiveness of HPV vaccination

  • Commenters highlight strong evidence that HPV vaccines almost eliminate vaccine-covered high‑risk strains (notably 16/18) in vaccinated cohorts.
  • Linked data from Denmark, Scotland, Sweden and Australia show sharp drops in high‑risk HPV prevalence and early cervical cancer incidence in vaccinated young women.
  • Several note HPV causes multiple cancers (cervical, vulvar, vaginal, penile, anal, and oropharyngeal), so benefits extend far beyond cervical cancer.

Eradication, reservoirs, and timing

  • Initial confusion about non‑human reservoirs is corrected; participants conclude HPV is effectively human‑only, making elimination of key strains plausible.
  • Others point out long latency from infection to cancer, so the full impact on cancer rates will lag vaccine roll‑out by years.
  • One commenter flags potential confounding trends such as declining fertility and less sex in some countries, but this is presented as speculative.

Who should get vaccinated and age limits

  • Broad agreement that vaccinating preteens before sexual debut yields the biggest population impact and is why programs target that age.
  • There is debate about vaccinating adults:
    • Many argue it still helps because there are many strains and most people haven’t seen all high‑risk types.
    • Others stress that guidelines in some countries don’t recommend routine vaccination above certain ages, mainly for cost‑effectiveness and lack of trial data, not because the vaccine “stops working.”
  • Men are now widely recognized as both beneficiaries (throat, anal, penile cancers) and key transmitters; several note policy evolved from girls‑only to including boys.

Vaccination after prior HPV infection

  • Multiple comments state that prior infection does not eliminate benefit: the vaccine can protect against additional strains and faster clearance of infection; some small studies are cited.
  • HPV infections commonly clear over 1–3 years, but persistent or repeated infection raises cancer risk.

Safety, distrust, and antivax narratives

  • One side emphasizes long experience with vaccines, strong safety monitoring, and catastrophic harms when uptake falls (measles, polio). Wakefield’s fraudulent paper is cited as especially damaging.
  • Skeptical commenters invoke pharma misconduct (e.g., Vioxx, Zantac), argue for precaution, and contend “anti‑vax” is used as a slur to dismiss safety concerns.
  • RFK Jr.’s opposition to Gardasil is discussed: some highlight his financial ties to related litigation and label his claims dangerous; another commenter quotes his arguments about trial design and alleged high risk without endorsing them.
  • Several participants blame social media and recommendation algorithms for amplifying fringe beliefs and connecting conspiracists at scale.

Access, cost, and health‑system issues

  • Experiences vary widely: some adults easily obtain and insure the 9‑valent vaccine; others (especially in parts of Europe and the US) report age cutoffs, refusals by doctors or pharmacists, or high out‑of‑pocket costs.
  • Many note the gap between official “recommendations” and what people can get privately; some travel or use clinics like Planned Parenthood to work around restrictions.