Europe's EV sales surge 26% in 2025 while Tesla faces decline

China, trade, and industrial policy

• One camp argues Europe should freely import cheap Chinese EVs and export its own strengths (e.g., aircraft, lithography), framing this as mutually beneficial specialization.
• Others say that unlimited Chinese EV imports are an existential threat to the German/EU auto industry and mass employment; for them, aggressive tariffs and protection are justified.
• Long subthread on ASML and EUV: debate over whether EUV is truly “European IP” or effectively controlled by US licensing and joint R&D; general agreement that integration know‑how is uniquely hard and not easily replicated.
• Some compare “trust China” arguments to Europe’s past dependence on Russian gas, warning of a similar strategic trap; others counter that fears of inevitable Chinese dominance and Taiwan war‑scenarios are exaggerated or US-centric.

Regulation, incentives, and fairness

• Original call is for “draconian” measures to force automakers and consumers into EVs; pushback asks what exactly that means and who bears the cost.
• “Carrot” approaches suggested: dense, cheap charging (including curbside), EV-only public fleets, buses, and municipal vehicles to lead demand and normalize usage.
• Concerns about social equity: many fear that once enough affluent people drive EVs, new rules (e.g., low-emission zones, 2035 targets) will effectively ban older ICE cars and hurt poorer drivers who can’t upgrade.
• Examples given where this is “already happening” via urban low-emission zones; others point out lenient treatment of true vintage cars but note that regulations keep tightening.

Grid capacity and energy

• One side claims a 1:1 ICE→EV swap would “collapse” grids, citing already strained systems and limited fast-charger density.
• Counterarguments: EVs are ideal flexible loads for time‑of‑use pricing and grid balancing; oil refining itself is electricity‑intensive, so net additional demand is moderate (estimated 20–30% where refining disappears).
• Disagreement remains on whether current southern/central European grids can scale fast enough; details and data are contested.

EV adoption numbers and market structure

• EVs at ~20% of new sales with 26% annual growth are seen by some as a clear “surge” and enough to meet near‑term EU fleet CO₂ targets; others say growth should be higher given mandates and subsidies.
• Some note large country‑by‑country variation (e.g., big jumps in Spain vs declines in France; tiny Denmark matching Spain’s EV volumes).
• There’s skepticism that private demand alone will hit political goals, especially in a weak economy, and recognition that many policymakers hoped EV uptake would solve transport emissions “by itself.”

Tesla’s declining position in Europe

• Multiple commenters say Tesla’s unique EV advantage is gone: European/Korean/Chinese brands now offer comparable range and drivetrains with better interiors, fit/finish, and often lower price.
• Build quality is debated: some insist Tesla is clearly “cheap for the price,” especially at premium price points; others argue differences are marginal in real-world use until alternatives appeared.
• Brand damage is a recurring theme: Musk’s politics, “camera‑only” FSD, safety controversies (phantom braking, lane-keeping issues), and hostile labor stance (e.g., union conflict in Sweden) are cited as major turn‑offs.
• Several users explicitly refuse to buy Tesla for political/ethical reasons, choosing VW ID models or others instead; one notes that “Hitler salutes” and similar associations are disastrous marketing.

European automakers and models

• European brands are said to be “begging” customers to buy EVs, but margins are thin and demand uneven; some argue many models just aren’t attractive enough yet.
• Renault (R5, others) and VW ID series are highlighted as promising but imperfect: good drivetrains and space, middling software and pricing; first‑gen ID software is widely criticized.
• There’s frustration that EU policy long protected incumbent ICE makers instead of fostering pure‑EV startups; some argue Europe still lacks a strong “electric-only” mass-market brand.

Costs, used market, and consumer behavior

• Some contend EV interest is weaker than hoped: one ex‑EV driver moved back to hybrid, and others point to underused factory capacity and price wars (especially in China).
• Others stress strong long-run growth math: repeated ~26% annual gains from 20% share quickly dominate new sales, aligning with 2030–2035 ICE phase‑down timelines.
• Commenters note surprisingly low used EV prices in the UK and elsewhere, which can make EVs very attractive to budget buyers but painful for resale values.

Environmental side effects

• While EVs eliminate tailpipe emissions and most brake dust, there’s concern about particulate pollution from tires; some claim EVs are significantly harder on tires, others say the effect is overstated and data mixed.
• Hybrids are praised by some as a more pragmatic near-term solution, especially in Europe where public transport reduces dependence on long-range driving.