Gold hits all time high
Nominal vs real highs & volatility
- Several comments distinguish between nominal ATH in USD and inflation-adjusted highs.
- Shared charts show that, in real terms, gold only recently surpassed its 1980 peak and took ~26 years to regain that level.
- Gold is described as volatile and risky: e.g., 2011 peak took ~8 years to recover; long flat or down periods contradict the idea that it “always appreciates.”
- Headlines focus on “ATH!” spikes, obscuring long stretches of underperformance or trading ranges.
Dollar debasement and asset inflation
- Many see gold’s rise as part of broad asset inflation: equities, commodities, crypto, real estate, etc. all up implies “currency is down.”
- Others highlight a divergence between CPI (consumer prices) and much faster asset-price inflation, feeding inequality.
- Debate over money printing and QE: some blame central bank balance-sheet expansion; others stress money velocity and note past periods of rising money supply with low inflation (e.g., Japan).
- Discussion on whether inflation should be measured against consumer baskets (CPI) or hard assets like gold.
Why gold? Intrinsic vs perceived value
- Explanations: limited supply, non-corrosive, easy to work with since prehistory, enduring role in jewelry/status and religion.
- Historically better than livestock/barter (portable, divisible, doesn’t “die”).
- Counterpoint: in a true collapse, gold’s “intrinsic value” is low (can’t eat or shelter you); its value is ultimately collective belief.
- Comparison to Bitcoin: both chosen by social consensus; gold has millennia of path dependence, Bitcoin has mythos (mysterious founder, crisis-era launch).
Safe haven, politics, and system risk
- Gold framed as a standard “flight to quality” asset in times of upheaval: wars, debt worries, fear about deficits and central bank independence.
- Some distrust USD and US institutions, linking concerns to political figures, potential authoritarian drift, and inability of the democratic/oligarchic system to fix fiscal issues.
- Skeptics argue gold can’t protect you from authoritarianism or war, only from monetary inflation.
Paper gold, central banks, and the Fed’s $42 price
- Concern that much “gold exposure” is unbacked paper claims; central banks buying physical bullion is seen as more meaningful.
- Worries about a “house of cards” if paper claims fail; speculative references to historical gold confiscation and capital controls.
- Side debate over the Fed’s statutory $42.22 gold price: one side sees it as symbolic/legal relic; the other treats it as evidence they can arbitrarily reset prices, prompting accusations of conspiratorial thinking.
Broader market context & individual choices
- Some emphasize that many assets (stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, collectibles) are at or near highs, so gold’s move isn’t unique.
- Others note exceptions (art, certain collectibles, Rolexes off peak).
- One commenter lists drivers: flight from USD assets, central bank buying, Chinese investor demand, debt/deficit fears, and worries over fiscal dominance.
- A user asks about buying and holding silver; no clear consensus answer is provided.
- Recommended resources include Ray Dalio’s “Big Debt Crises” and work on fiscal dominance to interpret the current cycle.