Companies are lying about AI layoffs?

Data and methodology skepticism

• Many commenters argue the blog post’s evidence is weak: it conflates correlation with causation, cherry-picks companies, and doesn’t control for prior-year H‑1B levels, extensions, or transfers.
• “Beneficiaries approved” includes renewals and employer changes, not just fresh imports, so it can’t be read as “new foreign hires replacing laid‑off locals.”
• Layoff counts similarly don’t show who was laid off (citizens vs H‑1B vs other visas), so the chart mainly creates a “fuzzy feeling” of correlation without proving substitution.
• Several note that a national cap on H‑1Bs is hit every year, making a sudden surge-driven replacement story implausible from these numbers alone.

Offshoring vs H‑1B replacement

• Multiple threads say the real trend is shifting entire functions offshore (India, Eastern Europe, Guatemala, etc.), not just swapping locals for H‑1Bs.
• Examples mentioned: big tech and consultancies closing or shrinking US campuses while growing large campuses abroad, or structuring orgs so most engineers are offshore with a thin US senior layer.
• Some claim, anecdotally, that companies publicly attribute cuts to “AI” while internally replacing US teams with cheaper offshore teams.

Why foreign labor is cheaper

• Explanations include: lower local cost of living, more selective or stratified education systems abroad, weaker or narrower social benefits, and sometimes looser labor protections.
• Others counter that many offshoring destinations do have social programs; the bigger US issues are housing, healthcare, and education costs.

Are H‑1Bs actually cheaper / abusive?

• One side insists H‑1Bs must be paid at or near local market rates and are often at big, high-paying employers.
• Another cites research showing many H‑1B roles certified below local median wages and notes that visa dependence makes workers less likely to push back, which employers value.

AI’s real role in layoffs

• Several argue AI is being overstated as a cause: some jobs are automated (especially low-level, offshore work), but current tools mainly offer modest productivity gains.
• Others say multiple phenomena can coexist: some AI-driven reductions, long-running globalization/offshoring, and corporate incentives to frame plain cost-cutting as “AI transformation” for investors and PR.