U.S. Lost 32,000 Private-Sector Jobs in September, Says Payroll Processor

Blame, Policy, and Tariffs

• Many tie the job losses and broader deterioration directly to current administration policies, especially sweeping and volatile tariffs “on the whole world.”
• Others note lags in economic effects and argue prior administrations also share responsibility, but several say the scale and speed of recent changes make this administration unusually causally responsible.
• Tariffs are framed as textbook-destructive: higher costs, planning uncertainty, and retaliation; commenters say the observed labor-market weakening matches what economists would expect.
• Some worry the U.S. has damaged global trust in its trade commitments for more than a generation.

Fed, Inflation, and “Engineered” Job Losses

• Discussion centers on the Fed chair openly targeting a weaker labor market to fight inflation.
• One side calls this contrary to the Fed’s “maximum employment” mandate; others stress the mandate is to balance employment with stable prices, not maximize jobs at any cost.
• The Phillips curve tradeoff and political reality—voters hate inflation more than unemployment—are highlighted.

Labor Market on the Ground

• Several posters report visible weakening: fewer recruiter messages, especially in tech/finance, and widespread layoffs.
• Sentiment is often bleak: “wasteland,” with fears of compounding shocks (federal layoffs, grant cancellations, AI-driven job losses).

Housing, Fertility, and Youth Prospects

• A long thread links falling fertility to housing, education costs, and weak entry-level jobs; parents expect to support children into their 30s.
• Others argue fertility decline is driven by deeper, rarely acknowledged causes; cost pressures are seen as exacerbating but not primary.
• Debate over whether lower fertility will “self-correct” housing and college competition, versus structural barriers (zoning, covenants, Prop 13, REITs, immigration policy).

ADP Numbers: Scale, Reliability, and Interpretation

• The surprise gap between expected +45k jobs and -32k is seen by some as a “yikes” signal; others point out the change is small relative to ~160M employed.
• Explanations for forecast misses: unusual conditions, lagging data, model assumptions broken by gig work and structural shifts.
• ADP’s dataset (about 1 in 5 workers) is viewed as large but industry-biased; some praise ADP’s operational reliability, others say it’s outdated, low-growth, and cavalier with personal data.

Authoritarian Drift and Satirical Reactions

• Multiple comments imagine or fear political retaliation against statistical agencies and ADP for reporting bad numbers, citing recent firings and intimidation.
• Dark humor and analogies (Mao’s Great Leap Forward, “blood in the streets” investing, “crony capitalism”) underscore a sense of institutional decay and rising inequality.