Removing these 50 objects from orbit would cut danger from space junk in half

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Power-law risk & perceived bias

  • Several comments liken the “50 objects = 50% risk” result to a Pareto/80‑20 effect seen in many systems.
  • Some see the focus on Russian and especially Chinese rocket bodies as politically convenient or propagandistic; others respond that Soviet/Chinese abandonment of upper stages is well known and reflects a few major players and design choices, not a conspiracy.
  • There is criticism that the article’s sourcing and headline are weaker than usual for that outlet.

Responsibility, regulation, and US practices

  • US rockets typically perform disposal burns for upper stages; this is said to be tradition rather than historically hard law, but now intersects with FCC orbital‑debris rules and emerging FAA regulations.
  • Recent US exceptions (failed deorbit burns) are noted; commenters try to identify specific stages.
  • Discussion touches on the “tragedy of the commons”: no one wants to pay for cleanup, everyone benefits from a cleaner LEO.

Technical options and cost of cleanup

  • Rendezvous with large tumbling stages is described as hard; Astroscale’s missions are cited as proof‑of‑concept, with quoted prices of roughly $8–100M per removal and total costs for the “top 50” in the low billions.
  • Starship is seen as a potential enabler by lowering launch costs and launching more cleanup craft, not as the cleanup system itself.
  • Ideas raised:
    • Dedicated “StarCleaner” satellites using Starlink‑like buses to gently nudge debris.
    • Ground‑based or orbital lasers to ablate and slow objects (with concerns about creating smaller fragments).
    • Tethers and nets, noting past test failures.

Recycling vs moving debris elsewhere

  • Hauling junk to the Moon or Mars is widely seen as uneconomic until there is in‑situ industrial demand and infrastructure; LEO deorbiting is much easier.
  • Some fantasize about future in‑space manufacturing and scrap reuse; others note that most rocket bodies aren’t especially valuable feedstock.
  • Sending debris to the Moon is criticized as “junking up” another environment, though a few envision future colonists paying for imported metals or carbon.

Risk, Kessler syndrome, and ethics

  • One commenter wishes for a large cascading collision to “force” a rethink; multiple replies push back on advocating widespread harm and argue that crises tend to recreate existing power structures.
  • There is debate over how bad a full Kessler scenario would be:
    • Some fear it could severely limit access to orbit.
    • Others argue transit through LEO is still feasible even in a debris‑heavy regime.
  • The “humanity stuck on Earth by its own orbital trash” scenario is raised and contested; some insist interstellar escape is physically unrealistic anyway.

Debris, warfare, and dual‑use tech

  • Debris‑removal capabilities (rendezvous, robotic capture) are recognized as dual‑use and potentially threatening to adversary satellites.
  • Some speculate that dense debris near one country’s constellations could enable “hybrid war” deniable attacks; others argue debris is shared, orbits intersect, and intentional collisions are too risky to one’s own assets to be attractive.

Commercial vs government space actors

  • Discussion of NASA, SLS, and large contractors contrasts high‑cost, low‑risk government programs with private companies that can “fail fast.”
  • It is noted that even “commercial crew” has one provider still struggling, reinforcing that “space is hard” regardless of contracting model.
  • For constellations like Starlink, commenters say collision risk is mitigated by low orbits, active avoidance, and routine deorbiting at end of life.

Metrics and missions

  • Some question whether “50% risk reduction” is meaningful without absolute probabilities; it might be halving an already tiny risk.
  • ESA’s dead Envisat is cited as a top hazardous object; there was a planned removal mission that was later cancelled, which disappoints some due to the lost engineering opportunity.

Cultural references

  • Multiple commenters recommend the anime Planetes as a thoughtful depiction of orbital debris and the mundane realities of working in space.