Toyota aims to launch the ' first' all-solid-state EV batteries

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Toyota’s solid-state announcement & timeline

  • Reaction is split between excitement and “we’ve heard this before.”
  • Commenters list prior Toyota claims (solid-state “by 2020,” “2021 debut,” etc.) and see 2027 as another moving target.
  • Others argue that in car-development terms 2027 is “really soon,” noting: test cars reportedly exist, Japan’s METI has approved Toyota’s plans, and manufacturing partners/tooling are being named.

Credibility, PR, and strategic motives

  • Many suspect the announcements are mostly PR/FUD: “breakthrough EV soon, don’t buy an EV today, keep buying our ICE/hybrids.”
  • Some argue this strategy has “worked” commercially: record Toyota sales, strong hybrid demand, while many EV programs lose money.
  • Counterpoint: this is normal R&D hype rather than a deliberate anti-EV conspiracy, and Toyota is large enough to pursue multiple tech bets.

Hydrogen vs BEVs

  • Several express confusion at Toyota’s continued hydrogen push given poor infrastructure, storage/transport issues, and easier use of hydrocarbons.
  • Some point to Japan’s energy situation (imported natural gas, hydrogen as a derivative) and past government enthusiasm (including California) as context.
  • Majority sentiment in the thread: hydrogen passenger cars are a dead end; Toyota and the Japanese government suffered from “groupthink.”

What solid-state promises

  • Claimed advantages:
    • Safety (no flammable liquid electrolyte, less risk of thermal runaway).
    • Higher energy density → lighter packs, more compact packaging.
    • Potentially faster charging, better performance in extreme temperatures, longer cycle life.
  • One view: increased durability enables chemistries that currently degrade too fast.
  • Skeptics note current Li-ion (especially LFP) is already “good enough” on range, longevity, and charge rates for most cars; cost is the real battleground.

1000-mile range debate

  • Some see 1000 miles as overkill and prefer ~400 miles plus lower weight and cost.
  • Others list use cases: towing, motorhomes, trucks/buses, emergency/service vehicles, cold climates, and urban drivers without home charging.
  • Larger packs can accept higher power when fast-charging and provide more buffer for real-world conditions.

Cost, manufacturing, and market realities

  • Key obstacle is cheap mass production, not lab prototypes; even big electronics firms only target tiny devices so far due to cost.
  • Commenters highlight the long, painful ramp Tesla/Panasonic had with “conventional” cells and doubt a newcomer can match CATL/LG Chem on volume and price by 2027.
  • Some expect solid-state to matter only if it is cost-competitive or licensed into existing large battery makers.