Tesla is heading into multi-billion-dollar iceberg of its own making

FSD promises, pricing, and “loyalty” offers

• Many see early FSD buyers (paying up to ~$15k) as having given Tesla an interest‑free loan for a product that never reached the advertised “Full Self Driving” state.
• The article’s suggestion of discounts or FSD-transfer-on-upgrade is widely viewed as backwards: customers would only recover value if they buy another Tesla, from the same company that over‑promised.
• A minority argue that if buyers are happy with current functionality, they have little reason to be upset, even if the original promise was oversold.

Legal and regulatory exposure

• Multiple class actions (Australia, US, China) are cited as evidence that regulators and courts are finally reacting.
• Commenters stress that fine print cannot nullify clear marketing promises; misleading claims can override “beta” language in contracts.
• Several note that non‑US jurisdictions (EU, China, Australia, NZ) tend to be less tolerant of “just kidding” clauses and may force refunds or penalties.

Is it fraud or just hype?

• Many frame FSD sales and timelines as textbook fraud: repeated, specific, public promises of imminent full autonomy that never materialized, while revenue and stock price benefited.
• Others counter that over‑optimistic tech timelines are industry‑wide, and that Tesla did deliver an advanced Level‑2 system, just not true autonomy.
• Broader debates ensue about capitalism rewarding deception, unequal enforcement of laws, and whether ultra‑wealth should be capped or more heavily taxed.

Owner experiences: praise vs disappointment

• Some owners report daily, multi‑year FSD use (often via subscription) and describe it as “amazing,” handling long commutes and heavy traffic with few interventions.
• Others say city driving is jittery, requires constant vigilance, and that reliability has regressed—especially after Tesla removed radar/ultrasonic support.
• European owners note paying for “FSD” while only getting marginally more than basic Autopilot for years.

Competition, charging, and hardware

• Several argue Tesla still wins on reliability track record, integrated app/remote features, seamless Supercharger experience, and direct sales (no dealerships).
• Others point to strong Chinese EVs (especially BYD), better interiors, CarPlay/Android Auto, and standard features like 360° cameras.
• There’s concern that HW3 cars built as late as 2024 are already “obsolete” relative to HW4; retrofitting is seen as technically feasible but expensive at scale.

Autonomy reality vs promises

• Commenters distinguish Tesla’s supervised Level‑2 system from truly autonomous services like Waymo, which assume crash liability and operate driverless vehicles.
• Tesla’s vision‑only stack and removal of sensors is widely criticized as unsafe and a key reason full autonomy hasn’t materialized.
• Some predict Tesla will never field unsupervised robotaxis; others are confident that safety drivers will eventually be removed, though timelines are disputed.

Tesla’s valuation and narrative

• Many see Tesla as a meme stock whose valuation (P/E > 250) depends on belief in FSD, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, not just being “a good car company.”
• Several argue that to maintain that narrative, Tesla had to oversell FSD and now Optimus, creating the “multi‑billion‑dollar iceberg” of potential refunds and legal liabilities.

Consumer responsibility vs protection

• One camp says Tesla’s reputation and abundant red flags made due diligence easy; buyers who believed the hype “got what they ordered.”
• Others argue that ordinary consumers reasonably trusted years of positive coverage and should not be expected to parse engineering feasibility; that’s why false‑advertising and consumer‑protection laws exist.

Musk’s persona and brand impact

• Many note customers who now regret owning Teslas because of Musk’s politics and behavior, not just product issues.
• Some describe a “cult” dynamic where owners, investors, and influencers have strong incentives to defend Tesla despite broken promises.
• A few express fatigue at what they see as an anti‑Musk pile‑on, while others say his actions fully justify the backlash.